General Discussion

DFW

(54,330 posts)

13. I believe the following

Reply to Progressive Jones (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 03:17 AM

Mar 2020

At this point probably 75% of us in North America and Europe have been exposed to the virus.

Of that 75%, maybe 10% have shown some symptoms

Of THAT 10%, maybe 10% have shown, or will show severe symptoms

Of THAT 10%, maybe 5% will not survive.

I also believe that few of those infected will be tested, and that maybe a third to half of the fatalities will be correctly diagnosed as to cause of death.

I believe that more fatalities in Europe will be correctly diagnosed than in the USA because Republicans in the USA, due to Trump's foolish utterances, will be under pressure to say that everything is fine, and that people in their states who died from the virus might just as well have been run over by a truck, and a precise diagnosis will be slow (i.e. never) in coming.

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A sort of a straw poll here. Do you believe the infection/death numbers we are getting? [View all] Progressive Jones Mar 2020 OP

We already know that most people can't get tested. Crunchy Frog Mar 2020 #1

Dying untested and spreading the disease unknowingly. sheshe2 Mar 2020 #6

I believe we are getting the data that can be reported misanthrope Mar 2020 #2

I don't I_UndergroundPanther Mar 2020 #3

.... Skittles Mar 2020 #4

To varying degree, depending on source. greyl Mar 2020 #5

Don can't handle the truth. sheshe2 Mar 2020 #7

It's higher JustAnotherGen Mar 2020 #8

I think it's higher. Who is counting the folks who live alone and no one will find for a while. nt AnotherDreamWeaver Mar 2020 #9

Well, I had symptoms for 12 days and I bamagal62 Mar 2020 #10

Speaking of antibodies testing you might find this interesting HarlanPepper Mar 2020 #11

+++NOT FROM THE RED STATES+++ uponit7771 Mar 2020 #12

Please stop dividing on red v. blue Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #38

I believe the following DFW Mar 2020 #13

I think reported deaths per day since about 3/10 in WA and NY are close. pat_k Mar 2020 #14

Hell no, not for the US and not here in Sweden. We had a massive death spike yesterday and the Celerity Mar 2020 #15

I believe some red state governors duforsure Mar 2020 #16

No, I think they are grossly underestimated. smirkymonkey Mar 2020 #17

In Ohio they're not reporting unemployment numbers because Trump doesn't want blueinredohio Mar 2020 #18

I tend to believe Dr. Acton. luvs2sing Mar 2020 #31

death- mostly. infections? no, testing so low. pansypoo53219 Mar 2020 #19

No one knows the real numbers Chainfire Mar 2020 #20

That's What I Think Too ProfessorGAC Mar 2020 #23

Actually no I don't gibraltar72 Mar 2020 #21

No n/t OhioChick Mar 2020 #22

My Thinking Is For RobinA Mar 2020 #24

I don't believe the numbers we are getting. Progressive Jones Mar 2020 #25

I do not think they are hidden Marrah_Goodman Mar 2020 #26

Without much more testing we can't know the true numbers. The Velveteen Ocelot Mar 2020 #27

I never truly believe anything from the Administration LakeArenal Mar 2020 #28

Yes I do. obnoxiousdrunk Mar 2020 #29

I'd guess we are seeing a fraction in the reports. The Genealogist Mar 2020 #30

How can we have accurate numbers on the infection Arthur_Frain Mar 2020 #32

They are much, much higher. liberalmuse Mar 2020 #33

How should deaths be reported if there are underlying conditioms? nitpicker Mar 2020 #34

Almost certainly underreported significantly. Including deaths. green88 Mar 2020 #35

Well, Johns Hopkins is showing 46 Louisiana deaths, Baton Rouge newspaper says 83.... blitzen Mar 2020 #36

The numbers we have are the best we have based on the available testing Proud Liberal Dem Mar 2020 #37