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Response to magicarpet (Original post)

Sat Mar 28, 2020, 02:30 AM

4. Difference between 40,000 to 160,000 deaths and 370,000 to 1.5 million

For projection of deaths assuming the continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures, see the Total Deaths graph on the following page (from Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington)


Using the same mortality rate for both scenarios graphed in the NY Times projections, we can expect the number of deaths estimated by IHME to increase 9.14 times if social distancing ends prematurely.

Of course, the mortality rate for the "go back to business as usual" scenario would be much higher because hospitals would be utterly overwhelmed. I have no idea how much higher the mortality rate would be, but if the current estimate of 1.5% became 3%, you'd be talking 320,000 to 3 million deaths.

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magicarpet Mar 2020 OP
guillaumeb Mar 2020 #1
cos dem Mar 2020 #3
guillaumeb Mar 2020 #5
magicarpet Mar 2020 #2
LineNew Reply Difference between 40,000 to 160,000 deaths and 370,000 to 1.5 million
pat_k Mar 2020 #4
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