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ProfessorGAC

(64,987 posts)

9. I've Seen Estimates Of 8x Confirmed

Reply to 0rganism (Reply #4)

Wed May 13, 2020, 06:48 AM

May 2020

So there are still differences amongst the professionals.
8x would suggest around 14 million infected, & 100k deaths.
Even at that, the mortality rate would be 0.7%, or 8-10x worse than typical flu.

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HEALTH AFFAIRS (online mag): Covid19 "infection fatality rate" is 1.3% [View all] Bucky May 2020 OP

Total estimation as we don't know # of unsymptomatic JCMach1 May 2020 #1

I think epidemiologists have another word for it besides "guess". Like "estimate" or "model"... Bucky May 2020 #2

The 'estimates' vary pretty widely... JCMach1 May 2020 #8

Given the amount of unreported cases that have resolved I think 1 pct is close. roamer65 May 2020 #3

so this suggests we have around 6.4M infected not 1.4M 0rganism May 2020 #4

Of course there could be a significant undercount of deaths, too Bucky May 2020 #6

we need a lot more testing, that's for damn sure 0rganism May 2020 #7

I've Seen Estimates Of 8x Confirmed ProfessorGAC May 2020 #9

righto! CountAllVotes May 2020 #5