Quinnipiac National Poll Shows Biden By Up by 10

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Independents 50-40 toward Biden is the key number

Swing independents will decide this election just like they decide every election. That independent category is all I care about. Trump won independents by 4 points in 2016 but they quickly shifted away to him in early 2017 and have remained at basically this same 10 point level toward Democrats subsequently. The House national vote in 2018 was independents 54-42 toward Democrats.

This poll has the sensible partisan numbers of Biden 93-6 among Democrats and Trump 90-8 among Republicans. As I've emphasized, don't believe any crap poll that has Trump receiving 20% of blacks or Biden receiving 20% of Republicans. It is not happening. The crossover anecdotes are merely that, trivial nonsense. It happens every cycle yet somehow the gullible suckers always find some rationale that it's going to be valid this time.

The 90/10 categories are difficult for polling to capture especially African-Americans at 12% of the population. Small number of outliers really skew the sample. Likewise there is always absurd hype every cycle that the Republican will win 15-25% of the black vote. Just ignore it and assign 90/10.