General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Trump will get his SCOTUS nominee confirmed. What will the Dems do in response? [View all]Celerity
(43,316 posts)in the Senate to do so. I hope I am wrong. First, we have to win the Senate and POTUS back or all of this is irrelevant anyway.
Doug Jones will lose, so we need 5 flips to get to 51.
14 remotely flippable seats
AZ and CO are pretty much locks.
So we are at 48.
TN and KY are probably lost causes and TX will be a super stretch.
That means we need 3 of the following
ME - Collins is going down
So we are at 49
So need 2 of these 8
NC
MT
IA
GA regular
GA special
AK
KS
SC
Bullock needs cash in MT, his lead is gone (surprisingly) and he trails the truly moronic Steve Daines, arguably the stupidest Senator. If Bullock wins, we WILL be taking back control.
I like our chances in NC, IA, AK, and SC the best, of those 8.
Kansas I would have picked as a flip for sure if Kobach had won the Rethug primary, but unfortunately he lost (and was disappointed to see so many here celebrating that loss).
I think we win 3 of the 8, so 52-48 Dem majority, maybe 4 flips, so 53-49, with a high, flip-wise of 6 wins from those 8, so 55-45 Dem Majority.