538.com: Biden chances for winning 77%, Trump 22%

[ProfessorGAC]

21. I Buy That

I looked over the 2016 prediction and found it was a little arbitrary in weighting. The explanations were a bit squishy, as well.
And, I am one who is loathe to compare '16 to '20, as there are substantial subjective variables that are very different this year.
I was only providing context that even Nate has not developed a model that is supremely reliable in it's ability to predict.
Maybe he has adjusted factors & weighting, and that would be good.
And, PINO at 22 instead of 29 is another positive.
I haven't looked at his method now, but there are 2 subjectives I think are high impact:
- the 25 year propaganda to drum up dislike & distrust of HRC does not exist for Biden.
- the unknown commodity factor that PINO had 4 years ago no longer exists. Some people thought voting for the outsider would shake things up and get things done. Aside from court packing, they've accomplished a lot of nothing.
Less reason to vote against Biden, AND less reason to vote for PINO.