538.com: Biden chances for winning 77%, Trump 22%

[kurtcagle]

22. Coups need support and surprise

He's PLANNING a coup. I don't think there's any question about it. Problem is that he's pissed off the military, is getting pushback from several agencies (even DHS and DOJ), is increasingly constrained on logistics and has only about 45 days to pull it off.

If he wins, it's moot - he'll deal with a great deal of civil unrest, but he'll have the full backing of the presidency behind him at that point. If he loses, even if the vote is contentious, his legitimacy is gone. He can still do damage (and he's the kind of petulent bully that will do damage) but his ability to command loyalty will have ended. What's more, I suspect that most of the West, Northeast and even upper Midwest will not acknowledge him as president at that point.