General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Biden's internals has him up 350 Electoral Votes [View all]Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Kerry really didn't contest Virginia in 2004. The state took on added emphasis after the Webb/Allen result in 2006.
Regardless, I don't favor one example among hundreds. Obviously this is somewhat similar. Hillary gave some attention to Arizona but nothing like Biden has, and likewise jump started by a friendly senate result in the prior midterm.
Virginia plummeted from 38% conservatives in 2004 to 33% in 2008. I have noted that example countless times. Getting that number down to 37% or below is crucial. The problem in Arizona is that the percentage of self-identified conservatives has shown no sign of plunging like that. It was 41% in 2016 and then still 40% in 2018. Contrast to Virginia which had already taken the stepladder drop from 38% conservatives in 2004 to 35% in that Webb/Allen midterm senate race of 2006.
I think Biden can win Arizona narrowly. But I never bought into any type of high margin, due to that percentage of conservatives.