Biden's internals has him up 350 Electoral Votes

[Awsi Dooger]

28. You didn't address the self-identified conservative aspect at all

That was the centerpiece of my post. It is always the key element of my posts. Everything changes once that number drops to 37% or lower.

Everything. The floodgates open. It is incompetence by the mainstream media and also the political analysts never to focus on that aspect.

Colorado always had low number of conservatives. It was sheer ignorance for Democrats not to prioritize that state sooner. I posted that here and elsewhere. Colorado was just sitting there at low to mid 30s throughout. It was already well below the pivotal 37% barrier in 2004, when there were only 35% conservatives in Colorado. The math totally changes in that range because you only need a manageable percentage of moderates, and not the extreme burden of moderate percentage once it's into the 40s and especially 42% or above.

This is not a Virginia or Colorado situation. Virginia in 2004 was 38% conservatives. Colorado was 35%. Arizona in 2016 was 41%. That is a totally different world in terms of opportunity for the dam to burst open. As I emphasized in my prior post, I'd be a believer in higher Biden margin if Arizona dropped to let's say 38% conservatives in 2018. Instead it barely nudged down to 40%, and in a similarly heavy-blue cycle.

The Dole example is not relevant at all. I wrote states do not shift blue that quickly. They certainly can shift red that quickly, like all the examples from 2016. They can shift red in a hurry because the ideological high number is on that side. The swing states are swing states because they have that range of 6-12% more conservatives than liberals. Arizona 2016 still had 14% higher -- 41% to 27%.

Let's put it this way...if Biden does win Arizona big it will be short term and overhyped toward where the state really stands.