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Fiendish Thingy

(15,568 posts)

16. Would you agree that a lead outside the MOE is better than one inside the MOE?

Reply to Silent3 (Reply #12)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 02:07 PM

Oct 2020

Even if the lead outside the MOE is smaller than the one inside the MOE?

In Clinton’s 2016 Rust Belt polls, her lead was within MOE, and most, but not all, of Biden’s Rust Belt leads are outside the MOE (and thankfully much larger than Clinton’s, and most significantly, above 50%). Most of Biden’s other swing state/Sun Belt polls are within the MOE, so I expect those races will be closer than MI, WI and MN.

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20 replies

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Highlight:

Understanding margins of error [View all] Silent3 Oct 2020 OP

K & R...for visibility...nt Wounded Bear Oct 2020 #1

You explained much better than I could PCIntern Oct 2020 #2

Am so glad there are folks like you on DU DonaldsRump Oct 2020 #3

You are not alone jimfields33 Oct 2020 #6

Thanks Silent3! That really helps me to understand the polls. BComplex Oct 2020 #4

Thank you very much, very informative! n/t Spazito Oct 2020 #5

to me the only use of polls is to indicate the trends and why I was skeptical in 2016 as everything beachbumbob Oct 2020 #7

The trends were a factor, and so were modeling errors Silent3 Oct 2020 #9

the 2016 polls were more correct than not and definitely NOT Wrong beachbumbob Oct 2020 #11

The term "statistical tie" needs to die a horrible death and never be heard from again DrToast Oct 2020 #8

You discounted the most important part: Fiendish Thingy Oct 2020 #10

As some else pointed out, the term "statistical tie" is, in and of itself, a problem. Silent3 Oct 2020 #12

Would you agree that a lead outside the MOE is better than one inside the MOE? Fiendish Thingy Oct 2020 #16

Certainly it's better to be outside the MoE Silent3 Oct 2020 #18

Nevertheless, there is a significant difference between leads outside/inside the MOE Nt Fiendish Thingy Oct 2020 #19

Significant in what way? Silent3 Oct 2020 #20

O'Donnell and all the others who conflate MOE and statistical tie are wrong, the OP is correct grantcart Oct 2020 #13

Excellent post grantcart Oct 2020 #14

Thank you! I'm bookmarking this post for future reference. SharonClark Oct 2020 #15

all pundits need it to be close treestar Oct 2020 #17