Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

General Discussion

In reply to the discussion: Will Nevada hold? [View all]

Salviati

(6,008 posts)
9. I'm no Nevada election expert...
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 01:59 PM
Nov 2020

... but if you just project the current county percentages out to 100%, trump will gain a net of about 3500 votes from the counties he's currently leading in, which isn't enough to take down the current lead, let alone the 10,700 vote margin Biden would expect to gain in the counties he's leading in.

Granted that's a super simplistic model and I'd probably put more trust into more sophisticated analysis of how the remaining votes are likely to break down, but I think in either case it still looks good for Biden

Will Nevada hold? [View all] SlogginThroughIt Nov 2020 OP
Insight: PA and GA. nt LexVegas Nov 2020 #1
Still counting Ananda62 Nov 2020 #5
Remaining NV ballots are mail in From heavily Dem Clark co. (Las Vegas) nt Fiendish Thingy Nov 2020 #2
and Dems dominate mail-ins there bigtree Nov 2020 #6
Jon Ralston BlueInPhilly Nov 2020 #3
Nevada will be fine. aaaaaa5a Nov 2020 #4
Yes, goddammit. Alex4Martinez Nov 2020 #7
Jon Ralston called it a couple of days before the election Jarqui Nov 2020 #8
I'm no Nevada election expert... Salviati Nov 2020 #9
You guys are fantastic! SlogginThroughIt Nov 2020 #10
FWIW, Hillary only won it by about 25,000 democrattotheend Nov 2020 #11
Jon Ralston is the go to guy for everything NV dem politics..has been for yrs. he says we're good Thekaspervote Nov 2020 #12
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Will Nevada hold?»Reply #9