One Simple Chart Shows Why An Energy Revolution Is Coming - And Who Is Likely To Come Out On Top

[progree]

33. Covid data links

Last edited Mon Jan 4, 2021, 03:24 AM - Edit history (8)

ABBREVIATIONS:

7dma - 7 day moving average

Quick Links

Worldometers: For country population sizes and the covid situation in each country and the world overall

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Worldometers: For U.S. states (and the U.S. overall)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us

New York Times: U.S. States: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
. . . Countries of the World: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html

Covid Tracking Project: https://covidtracking.com/data

Positivity rates and testing rates and other metrics

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview
https://covidactnow.org/?s=1301312
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states
https://covidtracking.com/data
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/map/new-tests-per-100-k-people

RESTRICTIONS, Shutdowns, lockdowns -- see section way below

Alternatives to New York Times

## CovidActNow: https://covidactnow.org/?s=1124253 -- the states are numbered in the listing so don't have to count them like the NYTimes

## Global Epidemics: https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/ -- also numbers the states

## Reuters: https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/USA-TRENDS/dgkvlgkrkpb/index.html

## John Hopkins 50 states' minicharts "map" page, alternative to the NY Times from John Hopkins University
The below "map" of the 50 states' minicharts (which are scaled by daily new cases PER CAPITA), is from the John Hopkins U.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states

Purpose: Just to gather together my favorite links in one place to check out a state or country.

Particularly for a U.S. state, I want more than just the number of cases (or hospitalizations or deaths), because I don't know if, for example, 10,000 new cases is a terrible number or not compared to other states. Yet people post such articles without giving any context. Often to bash an unpopular populous, but I want to know more.

The context I seek is, so I can compare it to my state, to other states and to the U.S. average :

Per Capita -- I'm sick and tired of people bashing populous states that people want to live in for having big case numbers. Tell me what its per-capita numbers are and how it compares in that regard to the U.S. average and to other states, e.g. is it 15th best or 12th worst or about median or what.

7 day moving average (7dma). I have literally absolutely no use whatsoever for one day data. Testing and reported case results vary greatly by day of the week and also just day-to-day statistical volatility. This day-of-the-week effect and volatility varies from state to state. And I don't want to see days reported that are a combination of 2 or more days presented as one day results.

7 day moving averages get rid of the day-of-the-week problem. Every 7dma is an average of all 7 weekdays.

As an example of the day-of-the week effect, here is an example from Minnesota, written [link: http://view.connect.mpr.org/?qs=d58e34dfb0d90fd5c90dcbd0c4c10b17040f093c075d5c1bfc498df1b9698dd9b346ed964dbc1c800bc68735dd5a17dac545f59e902fd40bd35583224933fe711274810f357ae8f6dc9a60c94792a31e|December 8 by David Montgomery]:

"Mondays are typically the days when the most people go get tested. And data from Mondays tends to show up on Thursdays and Fridays — since the beginning of September, on average about 10 percent of eventual cases are reported on Wednesday, 35 percent on Thursday, 23 percent on Friday, 13 percent on Saturday, and 16 percent on Sunday." ((Hmm, that totals 97%, meaning that only 3% are reported on Monday and Tuesday combined -Progree))

Daily new cases (as opposed to cumulative total since the pandemic began) -- I almost always want to know where the hotspots are NOW, not the states that had a rough spring or summer. (When I do want to look at cumulative totals since the beginning, I choose Worldometers for that (below) )

Trends - I want to know if new cases are increasing or decreasing, and how rapidly. I usually look at the mini-charts at the top of the New York Times page, and then click on a state for a detailed look and larger graphs, for example

U.S. with mini-charts for each state:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

California as an example: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/california-coronavirus-cases.html

In a posting, realizing that fewer than 10% of the people click a link, I often present a mini-summary, e.g. this from a January 3 posting of Nevada:

Daily new cases, 7 day moving average
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/nevada-coronavirus-cases.html
1173   July 20 -- the pandemic high point until early November
277   Sept 13 -- post summer peak low point
2727   Dec 9 -- pandemic peak
1896   January 2 - latest (down 30% from the peak).

I have focused on cases, especially daily new cases per capita, 7dma in these links, because they are the leading indicator. Hospitalization rates and death rates tend to follow weeks after.

However, daily cases per capita in the data we see are reported cases. That in turn depends on the testing rate. Some states have relatively low testing rates and therefore, in general, relatively low reported case rates compared to those that do more testing. I have a special section below on testing rates and test positivity rates.

Hospitalization rates, especially new admissions rates if available, are the next metric in the timeline for me confirm that the situation is improving or worsening, and not just because of a change in testing rates. That and the trend in test positivity rates



DETAILS


Worldometers:

For country population sizes and the covid situation in each country and the world overall (with al the caveats below):

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

For U.S. states (and the U.S. overall)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us

Vitally Important: the default "Now" button likely has incomplete and too small New Cases and New Deaths data. Better to click the "Yesterday" button or the "2 days ago" button to make sure to get complete case data for a day.

A sucky thing about Worldometers is that they don't have anything for new cases per 1M population or new deaths per 1M population. After clicking the "Yesterday" or "2 days ago" button as cautioned above, one has to do the math by dividing the New Cases (or New Deaths) by the population. And there's no way to sort the table by new cases per 1M population or new deaths per 1M population because these columns don't exist.

All of the per-capita stuff (Total cases/1M pop, Deaths/1M pop, Tests/1M pop) are cumulative totals since the pandemic began. To me, most of that is ancient history, and I usually care much more about what's been happening the last few days or weeks. But like I said above, New Cases and New Deaths are not given on a per capita basis).

Another caution about New Cases and New Deaths is (besides remembering to click the "Yesterday" or "2 days ago button" so as to get a full day rather than a partial day of information), is that the daily amounts fluctuate quite a lot from day to day with some high days being the result of unusual case backlogs being reported on one day, for example. I much prefer sites that present 7 day moving average so as to smooth out the day-to-day volatility, and to also capture an entire week so as not to get biased data for days of the week where there is usually low or high numbers such as weekends and Mondays etc.

Good things about Worldometers:

. . . Shows the populations

. . . Shows the U.S. overall on the listing of the U.S. states, and the world overall on the listing of countries. A lot of other resources don't do that simple common-sense thing, so that, for example to compare the infection rate of Illinois to the U.S. overall, one has to visit 2 pages, and sometimes can be hard to find.

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New York Times

What's bad is that some people don't have access to the New York Times -- however do note that their coronavirus coverage is free and unlimited, but one has to sign up for that. And in the many months I've used it, I've never been asked to sign in again.

. . . U.S. States:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

I love it for its mini-charts of all 50 states (they are by default drawn to the same scale per capita so that states can be compared). As well as the table where one can rank the states by NEW per capita cases, 7 day moving average.

Warning that testing rates affect the reported case rates, so states that test more may have worse looking case rates than states that test less, and so comparisons aren't fair.

. . . Countries of the World:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html

Same comments as for U.S. States.

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Covid Tracking Project

CovidTracking: https://covidtracking.com/data

Good for U.S. overall statistics: Daily Tests, Daily Cases, Currently Hospitalized, Daily Deaths -- both for the most recent day, and the 7 day moving average. And Cumulative totals for all of the above (except hospitalization). All with graphs

Then followed by the above for each state. Some (most) have race & ethnicity statistics, long-term care facilities, viral (PCR) tests and antibody tests.

Unfortunately no graphs for the states.

But click on "Historical Data" links to see the daily numbers going all the way back.

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Testing Rates (e.g. tests per day per capita), Positivity Rates

Yes, some states test more than others, and differ in positivity rates too. Thus ranking states by their reported cases (per capita or not) is unfair. Such a list like the above that lists states according to their daily new cases per capita is just a starting point. It is what it is. If there is a website that tries to adjust a list like the above for these factors, please let me know.

About testing rates - Early in the pandemic, there was a great shortage of testing facilities. In some places like Minnesota, they have become abundant, and so testing rates is as much or more a "demand side" issue as a "supply side" issue.

After soaring new cases and testing rates, our governor completely shut down bars and restaurants for indoor dining in mid-November. Within a few days, daily case levels dropped and then so did testing rates. Testing facilities keep getting added, but with fewer people getting infected, the testing rate also dropped. Most people don't get tested unless they feel some need to do so -- such as feeling symptoms or having been in close contact with a Covid-positive person.

(The declining number of cases in Minnesota was corroborated with rapidly dropping test positivity rates and soon afterwards by dropping hospitalization rates, and after 4 or so weeks, dropping death rates).

So I don't make an enormous hoo hah about a state's low testing rate (compared to other states or the U.S. average) if the test positivity rate is low as well. But a low testing rate combined with a high positivity rate is a big red flag. An even bigger red flag is if the foregoing is true, and additionally, new cases are going up.

Positivity rates and testing rates are compared here:

. . https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview ::

If the page doesn't show all 3 columns ( New Cases, Tests per 100k people, and Percent Positive ), then try lowering your zoom level or widen the window.

Missing: U.S. overall test positivity rate and testing rate. Duh. Would be nice to have this, especially for comparing specific states to it.

. . https://covidactnow.org/?s=1301312 ::

This also has test positivity and also daily new cases per capita 7dma, so it's more useful for state ranking in daily new cases than NYTimes, since it has everything I want in such a listing except for testing rates. It also has Population, Infection Rate, ICU Capacity Used (%), and Tracers Hired (%)

In the second half of the page, there are graphs of Cases, Deaths, Hospitalizations, and ICU Hospitalizations all in 7 day moving average. And one can select per 100K and compare 2 or more states.

(BUT the [link: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
|NY Times] has those mini-charts of each state's daily case trends all on one page)

Missing: U.S. overall test positivity rate and testing rate. Duh.

. . https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states ::

U.S. Test Positivity Rate (just a graph) - If one chooses "US" in the pull down dark blue box near the top left, it shows a daily graph of the test positivity rate, 7 day moving average. (It also shows the number of daily tests in millions, and the number of daily positive tests in millions -- the latter is and hopefully remains a small fraction of a million). Unfortunately, for the test positivity rate, one must either read the graph, or hover your mouse over it -- in which case it will pop up the testing rate, as well as the number of tests and the number of positive tests.

Problem is positioning your mouse exactly on the day you want, usually the last day. For that, it comes down to manual dexterity coupled with zooming in (no reason they can't just show the last day's numbers to the right of the graph, sigh).

By the way, it is apparent from the graph that the daily tests fluctuate a lot from day to day. This is one reason I hate Worldometers and other sites that just present the most recent day or one day results. I very strongly prefer those that present the 7 day moving average as that eliminates the day-of-the-week effect, and more generally averages out the day-to-day volatility.

Note also that when the mouse is on the graph, a set of icons appears above the graph for things like zoom, pan, select, and many more. I find them very difficult to use. One that may be useful is "download as .png"

Lastly, note that one can show individual states by selecting them from the pull down dark blue box near the top left.

Missing: U.S. testing rate. But at least it has the U.S. positivity rate, though one has to read it from the graph or hover the mouse just right.

. . https://covidtracking.com/data ::

This has U.S. daily tests, daily cases, currently hospitalized, and daily deaths, all for the latest day and 7dma as well. And all as graphs. The U.S. overall daily tests, 7dma is above the first graph "7-Day Avg". See "The U.S. overall positivity rate and testing rate" section below for how to calculate the testing rate per thousand, per 100k, and per 1 million.

. . . . . Scroll down to see results for states (note the "Jump to a state" purple box with links to the right of Alabama, so you don't have to scroll and scroll)

. . https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/map/new-tests-per-100-k-people ::

A color-coded map of Daily Testing rates per 100k people, 7dma (hover mouse over a state on the map to see the number for that state).
Missing: U.S. overall, duh

The U.S. overall positivity rate and testing rate :

. . U.S. overall test positivity rate, 7dma: Only one I've found is https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states where one has to read it from the graph or hover the mouse just right.

. . U.S. overall testing rate:

This has U.S. daily tests, daily cases, currently hospitalized, and daily deaths, all for the latest day and 7dma as well. And all as graphs. The U.S. overall daily tests, 7dma is above the first graph "7-Day Avg".

As an example, the 7 day average on 1/2/21 was 1,535,081. Divide by the U.S. population of 332.0 million to get 1.535 M / 332.0 M = 0.0046 tests per person = 4.6 tests per thousand = 460 per 100k = 4,600 per million.

(source of U.S. population : https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ )

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RESTRICTIONS, Shutdowns, lockdowns:

New York Times, all states
. . . https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html
Midwest: Coronavirus-Related Restrictions By State, NPR, 12/3/20
. . . https://www.npr.org/2020/06/11/847413697/midwest-coronavirus-related-restrictions-by-state
NPR all states:
. . . https://www.npr.org/series/847328455/coronavirus-restrictions-in-each-state

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Alternatives to New York Times

## CovidActNow: https://covidactnow.org/?s=1124253 -- the states are numbered in the listing so don't have to count them like the NYTimes

## Global Epidemics: https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/ -- also numbers the states

## Reuters: https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/USA-TRENDS/dgkvlgkrkpb/index.html

## John Hopkins 50 states' minicharts "map" page, alternative to the NY Times from John Hopkins University
The below "map" of the 50 states' minicharts (which are scaled by daily new cases PER CAPITA), is from the John Hopkins U.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states

-- at that page you can click on individual states on the "map". Showing 3-day moving average of new cases. I prefer the nytimes' charts which are 7 day moving averages). But I'm not sure how up to date the below .jpg image file is, so its better to click the ABOVE link (also the individual states on the above link are click-able to show more info on the states)