it don't think it's close to 50/50, but it's not tiny either.

those who completely dismiss it give too much weight to what the institutions are *supposed* to do, what the law says, what the norms are, etc.

those who think a coup has a non-zero change figure that it all depends on just how corrupt the institutions have become, because in the end it all depends on the integrity of the people in the various institutions.

if the supreme court decides, hey, we have at least 5-4 to completely ignore all kinds of laws and elections and norms and just hand the presidency to the guy the court majority prefers, then they could do that.

personally, i think this is a bridge too far even for the radical right members of the supreme court. had the election been close, or had there been an actual controversy, then sure, they would have stolen it for donnie, just like they stole it for shrub in 2000.

but the election wasn't actually close or really in dispute. it's just a propaganda dispute. so i don't think the supreme court would actually overturn this election. too obvious. 2000 was close, they could get away with it. not this time.

that said, coups can often look silly and improbable right up until they actually succeed. in the end, we're relying on 5 right-wingers not to agree to be complete schmucks.


so i can't say the probability is zero.