Holiday COVID-19 surge?

[progree]

1. I look at U.S. daily new cases, 7 day moving average

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html



The numbers are daily new cases, 7 day moving average (which lag a little because it's the trailing 7 days)

It starts rising in early September to Nov 24: 175,550
dips to Dec 1 mini-bottom: 161,247
rises to Dec 9: 210,112
then rises very slowly to Dec 19: 216,706
then falls to a mini-bottom Dec 30: 183,243
then rises to all time peak January 9: 253,958
and falls ever since, latest Feb 6: 121,677.

Daily new cases tends to lag the precipitating event by 1-3 weeks, so they say.

It's really hard to tell because different states keep adding and removing restrictions. For example Minnesota clamped down on bars and restaurants November 13 (first a curfew and no standing or sitting at counters or physical bars), then closed completely November 21, and then opened up for so-called outdoor dining December 19 and indoor dining on January 11. Restrictions on other businesses and activities also ebbed and flowed.

About all's I can say is the common explanation for the rise beginning early September was colder weather and people spending more time indoors. Certainly true of places like Minnesota.

I'm not going to try to adjust the above dates backwards 1 to 3 weeks and then try to find the Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years peaks, if any, in all of this.