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Hortensis

(58,785 posts)

5. Umhm, and due to what else? Is the enormously influential political polling industry

Reply to PortTack (Reply #3)

Wed Jul 28, 2021, 12:50 PM

Jul 2021

really the only one that doesn't have many institutions working to elect Republicans? Like CNN, MSNBC, AP, NYT, and most other MSM among media, but not the pollsters? Aside from those mentioned who set up their own polling functions to provide support for their analysis, of course.

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Highlight:

Nate Silver - the freak out about the Israeli vaccine effectiveness is due to poor analysis. [View all] Peppertoo Jul 2021 OP

Yup Johnny2X2X Jul 2021 #1

So the sky isn't falling? 48656c6c6f20 Jul 2021 #2

I no longer trust Nate silver or 538. they have been wrong the last 3 election cycles due to poor PortTack Jul 2021 #3

Umhm, and due to what else? Is the enormously influential political polling industry Hortensis Jul 2021 #5

What do you mean "they have been wrong"? brooklynite Jul 2021 #7

No they haven't- 538 is a poll aggregator, and does not have its own methodology/polling Fiendish Thingy Jul 2021 #11

Some people read "1 in 3 chance" and interpret it as "zero chance". Mariana Jul 2021 #18

Having worked in the polling industry for many years Bucky Jul 2021 #22

+1, They're weighting of right wing approval rating polls is horrible uponit7771 Jul 2021 #12

538 has performed very well Peppertoo Jul 2021 #19

Sometimes 538 delivers news that I don't like to hear Bucky Jul 2021 #20

I saw there was a British Health report that just being vaccinated, Delta better controlled. TheBlackAdder Jul 2021 #4

That's good. But 80% effectiveness against a variant that is 225% more contagious Scrivener7 Jul 2021 #6

Long Covid is a problem but it's rare. Of course we have to keep studying it and trying to totodeinhere Jul 2021 #14

The thread "unwrap" for Dvir Aran (Israeli data analyst) hlthe2b Jul 2021 #8

Agreed / thanks Peppertoo Jul 2021 #23

Yet the right is jumping on the Israeli estimate story like flies on a turd. Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Jul 2021 #9

But that is about "severe cases". The earlier report was about symptomatic illness. muriel_volestrangler Jul 2021 #10

+1, ... the "...probably.." qualifier is the thing that sticks out in the root tweet. It's a guess uponit7771 Jul 2021 #13

There have been people freaking out about the Israeli data but here and elsewhere Peppertoo Jul 2021 #21

That doesn't make Silver correct, though. He's a professional statistician muriel_volestrangler Jul 2021 #24

I think his tweets are valid Peppertoo Jul 2021 #26

That was pretty obvious when the report first came out Doc Sportello Jul 2021 #15

I Know What You Mean ProfessorGAC Jul 2021 #17

I tried to get a 3rd Pfizer BlueLucy Jul 2021 #16

That's not how it works. This is not a good idea. Scrivener7 Jul 2021 #25