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lees1975

(3,839 posts)

43. Not really

Tue Nov 9, 2021, 01:05 AM

Nov 2021

Youngkin was always within three or four points of McAuliffe, and closed the gap in the last few days. The composite polls in New Jersey were further off but there are some national network polls in there that make assumptions which weren't really present. But Morning Consult and YouGov were within their margins of error in both states.

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NJ Gov: Dem now leads by bigger margin in NJ than Rs in VA [View all] ColinC Nov 2021 OP

Gee, I heard on TV that Youngkin won a resounding victory, and Murphy barely squeaked by Walleye Nov 2021 #1

Right? I must have something wrong ColinC Nov 2021 #2

Sort of like when TFG called 306 electoral votes a landslide Walleye Nov 2021 #3

And when Biden also got 306 EV's, the media called it close! Polybius Nov 2021 #4

There was nothing close about the popular vote, though. Prof. Toru Tanaka Nov 2021 #14

Well considering Murphy led in the polls by nearly ten points... Drunken Irishman Nov 2021 #6

So the polls were wrong. They often are Walleye Nov 2021 #7

Yup. Gotta figure out how we nearly lost a reliably blue state. Drunken Irishman Nov 2021 #8

All true. Walleye Nov 2021 #10

Losing off year elections after presidential elections for the president's party ColinC Nov 2021 #12

Nope. No one expected losing NJ - or that it would be closer. Drunken Irishman Nov 2021 #16

Ok you are right about the polls in NJ but the polls in VA were actually closing ColinC Nov 2021 #23

The polls narrowed closer to the election ColinC Nov 2021 #9

Nope. Drunken Irishman Nov 2021 #19

The pre-election polls generally showed Murphy with between 49 and 51 percent. onenote Nov 2021 #11

The margins were not close. At all. Drunken Irishman Nov 2021 #17

The polls missed Ciaterrelli's support onenote Nov 2021 #24

Which is even more damning. Drunken Irishman Nov 2021 #25

I'm not suggesting the result wasn't bad onenote Nov 2021 #27

I beg to differ. Drunken Irishman Nov 2021 #34

Not really lees1975 Nov 2021 #43

Youngkin seemed consistently very close to McCauliffe. lagomorph777 Nov 2021 #48

All the media wants to do is attack the Democrats and portray repukes are for the kimbutgar Nov 2021 #5

Yep JustAnotherGen Nov 2021 #13

Who Cares? SoCalDavidS Nov 2021 #15

I would not trust a poll ever again, they are a mess. sunonmars Nov 2021 #18

not so much in terms of predicting the NJ Dem's per cent, in that they were pretty damn accurate Celerity Nov 2021 #28

GOP's Ciattarelli Digs In Despite Murphy's 65,000-Vote N.J. Lead -Another asshole who won't concede spanone Nov 2021 #20

But isn't NJ a dark blue like +20 D State? WarGamer Nov 2021 #21

No. (n/t) SMC22307 Nov 2021 #22

Interesting you did not give the stats. former9thward Nov 2021 #29

thanks, I suspected something like that! WarGamer Nov 2021 #36

Yes former9thward Nov 2021 #30

Yes but with a very strong history of electing republicants ColinC Nov 2021 #31

THIS. LowerManhattanite Nov 2021 #44

+16 D, and yes, other than fat fuck Christie the Rethugs haven't won state-wide for 24 years Celerity Nov 2021 #32

Presidential GOP candidates usually run far to the right of the state. Governor candidates do not. ColinC Nov 2021 #39

Not when it comes to Governors JI7 Nov 2021 #33

Beyond Christie, no Republican has won that state in 20 years. Drunken Irishman Nov 2021 #35

Your post demonstrates quite well that historically NJ is not a +16 D state for governors ColinC Nov 2021 #38

Only one Democrat has won by fewer than ten points - Murphy this past November. Drunken Irishman Nov 2021 #40

Sure. But the claim being debated is whether it is a +16 D state ColinC Nov 2021 #42

The claim is more correct than not. Drunken Irishman Nov 2021 #45

Just because you have a partisan advantage in registration ColinC Nov 2021 #47

No but the history of New Jersey certainly points to that. Drunken Irishman Nov 2021 #49

You are absolutely right. ColinC Nov 2021 #50

I do agree. I wish Jack Ciattarelli was more of that mold... Drunken Irishman Nov 2021 #52

Since Philly is still South Jersey's media market BumRushDaShow Nov 2021 #51

omg! Doom & Gloomers Cha Nov 2021 #26

K&R Scurrilous Nov 2021 #37

K&R UTUSN Nov 2021 #41

We were supposed to win NJ comfortably from the outset. n/m BradAllison Nov 2021 #46

I like to think anything above 51% is comfortable ColinC Nov 2021 #53