Prof Aaron Astor on the next offensive moves in Ukraine

[Beastly Boy]

1. Things are moving so fast in the east!

It appears the Russians attempted to break out of the encirclement. A terrible mistake, I think. There is only one road leading from Lyman in the direction of Kremina, and it is completely vulnerable to the Ukrainian fire. If that was the means for the Russian withdrawal, this road is now filled with Russian dead. The carnage would have been unimaginable, and I have no confidence that much of the Russian forces from Lyman (an estimated three or four battalions worth) will emerge intact from this retreat. And the survivors have only one place to go to: Kreminna. Kreminna itself is now under Ukrainian fire.

If, on the other hand, the Russians decided to avoid the road to Kreminna, and spread themselves out in the open field, they no longer have an army. It is not a retreat, it's a rout. Instead of a fighting force, they would have a bunch of marauding gangs with no command, fending for themselves. If they don't surrender, they will be picked one by one.

Either way, a lot of Russian lives wasted for nothing. A negotiated surrender would have been a much more honorable way to exit the war.