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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 03:08 PM

9. Breaking: Math is Good.

I've tried to read all your threads on all these issues but I admit it's tough. Between grandiose pronouncements, confusing first person plural pronouns, frustratingly poor research methods, and borderline unethical reporting I've been tempted to just pass these posts over.

You've attacked Kaplan over his drunk driving arrests from years ago, the fact that he's taken classes at many schools (some with poor academic reputations), and that he doesn't have the education or experience to design polls. None of these things prevent somebody from effectively starting or running a credible polling firm. An executive does not need to know the technical details of the work he or she is managing.

Polls can and should be judged on their statistical merits. You have not done so with Gravis. Notably, you linked to an analysis you claimed came from a statistician that contained a statistical criticism of a Gravis poll. The anonymous author never claimed to be a statistician and his or her analysis was not statistical but arithmetic and demonstrated a severe misunderstanding of poll weightings. This was pointed out in comments here on DU as well as in comments at the linked story. You haven't retracted your claims and you never addressed the comments. As pointed out above, Gravis' performance was judged to be in the middle of the pack of a few dozen pollsters.

You claim that Kaplan has said that "[he] is not a pollster" and "I am a robo caller, not a pollster" but I checked your posts on DU and the Human Events story on Kaplan and I couldn't find those quotes anywhere. You seem to be quoting yourself and attributing these quotes to Kaplan.

And now you have a new target. Paleologos' alleged crime is that his polls favored Obama so he stopped polling. What you haven't explained is why a small time pollster ceasing polls in a highly competitive marketplace consisting of dozens of pollsters is suspicious or important at all. Furthermore, why would you be upset that a person you think is ideologically compromised stopped polling?

With the Silver's triumph over his critics, I was hoping that scholarly analyses of research methods would take primacy over hyperbolic character attacks.

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