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All Mixed Up

(597 posts)
2. The overall head-to-head numbers are discouraging.
Thu Feb 22, 2024, 07:16 PM
Feb 22

They aren't the best for Biden.

According to exit poll data done by Edison from 2020, Biden won women 45+ (not 50+ but a five-year difference isn't likely to yield a significant difference) by around 54-45.

So, that means Biden is doing eight-points worse than he did with this demographic in 2020 and Trump is only two-points worse. That is, however, a swing of ten-points.

With how narrow the election was in some states in 2020, Biden can't afford to lose ground with women voters.

Granted, there's a good amount of undecided voters here and I suspect they lean Biden, but he's got way more to win over to secure reelection than Trump likely does.

In 2016, an election Trump won, and likely his best path to winning in November, Trump lost the 45+ women vote to Hillary 49.5-46.5 - or very similar to what he's getting in this poll.

Regardless, if he's to replicate his 2016 victory, he'd only need to bump his vote total up by 3.5 points and Biden would likely need to outperform the 49.5 Hillary saw (so, breaking 50%), which means maybe scoring four-to-five points better than he is currently if he's going to win.

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