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Fiendish Thingy

(15,869 posts)
4. Deeply flawed poll by deeply flawed pollster says what?
Sun Apr 14, 2024, 10:33 AM
Apr 14

Despite having their methodology (Oversampling republicans, questionable “reweighting” tactics) destroyed by critics, NYT/Siena keeps doubling down and pursuing their predetermined narrative.

FYI:

• We spoke with 1,059 registered voters from April 7 to 11, 2024.
• Our polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. More than 95 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll.
• Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this poll, we placed nearly 127,000 calls to more than 93,000 voters.
• To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the page, under “Composition of the Sample.”
• The poll’s margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.

-snip-

Full Methodology
The New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,059 registered voters nationwide, including 875 who completed the full survey, was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from April 7 to 11, 2024. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for the likely electorate. Among those who completed the full survey, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for the likely electorate.


https://archive.ph/72rNN

So, only 875 people completed the full survey? Not sure how they get a 3.7% MOE from a sample that small - most reputable polls shoot for 1500-2000 respondents to get a similar, perhaps slightly lower, MOE. Of course it is a “qualified” 3.7% MOE, since “ many other challenges create additional sources of error”.


It's like Gore Vidal said: thucythucy Apr 14 #1
+1. Selective amnesia dalton99a Apr 14 #2
Some Headline Kid Berwyn Apr 14 #3
Deeply flawed poll by deeply flawed pollster says what? Fiendish Thingy Apr 14 #4
There is a long tradition e.g. Whitewater, Iraq WMDs, Hillary emails, ...... dalton99a Apr 14 #7
I have Rebl2 Apr 14 #5
He's on trial for the laws he personally broke Johonny Apr 14 #6
Another B.S. poll from times/sienna. Think. Again. Apr 14 #8
The poll would have us believe that 25% say Biden was mostly good and 42% say Trump was mostly good DFW Apr 14 #9
" Either my country is deeply flawed or the poll is." FBaggins Apr 14 #17
Point taken. n/t DFW Apr 15 #19
I see it on Facebook with the "Are you better off than you were 4 years ago" thing, and they say No MiniMe Apr 14 #10
They want to forget 2020 like it never happened. doc03 Apr 14 #11
Most blame Covid for the economy crippling Polybius Apr 14 #12
Yet another example of polls being half media/pollster log rolling racket, half Voltaire/Vonnegut lunacy gulliver Apr 14 #13
was trying to recall my own Covid help/why this doesn't worry me NJCher Apr 14 #14
Remember the good old days when over a million people died from Covid tanyev Apr 14 #15
Never mind the polling....but.. albacore Apr 14 #16
Insanity budkin Apr 14 #18
Gee, gosh, I wonder how much media normalizing of Trump has to do with that? Silent3 Apr 15 #20
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