Montana polls

[Self Esteem]

48. This just isn't true.

Crosstabs have a higher MOE than traditional polling. So high in fact, that if polling generally had equal MOE as crosstabs, it would be considered unreliable.

But to your point: if Harris was only losing the white vote by ten, her polling margins would be much better than they are right now.

Take the most recent Emerson poll that has her doing about the same among white voters as Biden.

The point is that crosstabs should be taken with a grain of salt.

It's also important to understand that white support also varies depending on the state.

Biden lost white voters by 17 nationally in 2020 but in Pennsylvania, he did two-points better and "only" lost them by fifteen.

In Wisconsin, he only lost white voters by six points.

I don't see Harris doing better than 6 points in Wisconsin. I just don't.