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Showing Original Post only (View all)Data Scientist Who Correctly Predicted 2020 Election Now Betting on 'Landslide' Harris Win [View all]
Data Scientist Who Correctly Predicted 2020 Election Now Betting on Landslide Harris Win
by Carl Gibson | September 19, 2024 - 6:40am
from Alternet
Data scientist Thomas Miller of Northwestern University correctly predicted the 2020 Electoral College map, with the exception of Georgia. He also accurately forecasted Georgia's two Democratic U.S. senators, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, defeating then-incumbents Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue.
Now, he's anticipating that Vice President Kamala Harris will not only defeat former President Donald Trump in November, but will do so by a significant margin. Fortune reported that Miller is predicting that Harris' electoral map may resemble the 1964 map in which President Lyndon B. Johnson defeated Sen. Barry Goldwater (R-Arizona) with a whopping 486 electoral votes, or President Bill Clinton's 1996 victory over Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kansas), in which he secured 379 electoral votes.
"Its gone from a drastic landslide in Trumps direction to a drastic landslide for Harris," Miller said of his forecasting model
.
Even prior to the June debate between Trump and President Joe Biden which was widely viewed as the catalyst for Biden's eventual exit from the 2024 race Miller's metrics predicted a staggering defeat for Biden. He forecasted that Trump could win as many as 400 Electoral College votes prior to Biden's disastrous debate performance, which went as high as nearly 500 electoral votes.
But after Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris prompting a surge of excitement from the Democratic base and hundreds of millions of dollars in new fundraising the odds flipped in the vice president's favor in just a few weeks. Despite Trump catching up to Harris in the wake of the Democratic National Convention and getting back into a virtual tie with the vice president, Harris blew past him once again after last week's debate, which was viewed by 67 million Americans.
"Within a day after the candidates left the podium, Harris had jumped to exactly over 400 electoral votes," Fortune's Shawn Tully wrote. "The Harris endorsement from Taylor Swift, secured the day of the debate, probably helped sink Trumps chances, according to Miller. Since then, Harris has maintained [her] 400-plus vote total."
more...
http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/carl-gibson/111600/data-scientist-who-correctly-predicted-2020-election-now-betting-on-landslide-harris-win
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Data Scientist Who Correctly Predicted 2020 Election Now Betting on 'Landslide' Harris Win [View all]
babylonsister
Sep 19
OP
Americans would see him as a Putin asset if the conservative press didn't put their thumb on the scale for him
meow2u3
Sep 19
#34
"...it will be the final end to Chump's miserable career as failed politician..."
Wednesdays
Sep 19
#44
Some keep bringing up Hillary while conveniently ignoring what Comey did. Without a doubt Hillary would have won in
JohnSJ
Sep 19
#21
And they keep ignoring what we now know about TFG, but didn't know then. nt
Trueblue Texan
Sep 19
#24
Groundloop in 2016: "No way in hell is tRump beating Hillary" (to be honest she had 3 MILLION more votes, HOWEVER....)
groundloop
Sep 19
#22
These predictions only work with trump as the candidate. I can't be the only one who's worried that these assa**ination
rainin
Sep 19
#18
If you're not the only one worried that the repubs are plotting to remove Trump you should be
onenote
Sep 19
#42
Really? You're so confident that you'll call my concern "ridiculous". You must have an inside scoop.
rainin
Sep 19
#55
I'll tell you what won't happen: Trump won't be assassinated by folks who want him replaced by Vance.
onenote
Sep 19
#57
My interest in engaging with you is minimal. I don't usually engage with people who talk in absolutes
rainin
Sep 19
#60
Amber Nicole Thurman and her son are going along as the American people vote this fall.
Botany
Sep 19
#19
With the republican candidate like trump it should be like the LBJ/goldwater election, but unless pro-choice
JohnSJ
Sep 19
#20
This is nice to hear, but we still have to work our asses off to make it happen.
Trueblue Texan
Sep 19
#26
Yep - proofreading is bad on the printed news sheets ... but even worse on the news websites
FakeNoose
Sep 19
#37
Yah, this takes me back to going to bed with Hillary winning, and then waking up
a kennedy
Sep 19
#48
Harris' electoral map may resemble the 1964 map in which President Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater
Botany
Sep 19
#40
Looking for a proven way to snatch Defeat from the jaws of Victory? Try OverConfidence!
struggle4progress
Sep 19
#46
As I've mentioned before......I just want a crushing so there is NO doubt she won.
a kennedy
Sep 19
#49
This guy is using PredictIt, a betting site, as the data basis for his modeling?
LudwigPastorius
Sep 19
#67