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In reply to the discussion: Worst case, Trump wins. Then what? [View all]Metaphorical
(2,331 posts)Trump was an unknown quantity in 2016, but was known in 2020, and has visibly decomposed coming into 2024. We are now about three and a half weeks to the election, and I think that Trump's chances of even getting an electoral victory have evaporated. I don't see a sudden surge of support for Trump, and while it will likely be close, I don't think it will be THAT close.
However, worst case scenario (which I honestly think would be a contested election where Trump loses the Electoral college, but not by enough to be decisive, then shenanigans occur), here's what I expect to see happen:
* The Supreme Court will attempt to validate the election for Trump, even if Trump loses.
* The blue states (and indeed many of the purple states) will not accept this, especially if the House changes hands to the Democrats. The election is thrown into the INCOMING House, which votes for Harris.
* The red states refuse to recognize Harris, and the red states launch a petition for secession.
* A new constitutional convention is agreed to, but only if it is a plebiscite of voters rather than legislatures in each state that determines whether the agreements upon the convention are met (e.g., which parent gets the kids).
* The US splits into two or possibly three separate countries, with a single common defense system (those nukes and bases are going to be problematic to split). US Debt obligation is broken up by population.
This is my bad marriage scenario, with the biggest question simply being how messy the divorce is going to be. I'm becoming less and less optimistic that this scenario won't happen, if not this year, then in the next couple of cycles.