July jobs report expected to show a labor market slowing to a crawl

[Bernardo de La Paz]

3. Only one out of eight

Today Consensus Last Month

218,000 222,000 217,000 Initial jobless claims July 26
0.9% 0.8% 0.9% Employment cost index Q2
0.3% 0.2% -0.4% Personal income June
0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Personal spending June
0.3% 0.3% 0.2% PCE index June
2.6% 2.5% 2.4% PCE (year-over-year)
0.3% 0.3% 0.2% Core PCE index June
2.8% 2.7% 2.8% Core PCE (year-over-year)

Initial jobless claims came very close to expectations, within data noise really. So did PCE June and Core PCE June.

Employment cost index, personal spending, PCE (yr on yr) and Core PCE came in worse than consensus expectations.

Personal income came in better than expected.

So of the 8 figures, 3 came in as expected, 1 was better, and 4 were worse. Today's data (as one example) runs against your claim. Only one out of eight was better than expected.