Though difficult to assess due to a change in the primary structure (from jungle to closed party in 2026), the turnout drop-off from the prior-off-year primaries is about half the Republican senate vote volume seen in the comparable 2010 and 2014 off-presidential cycles (the ~27% 2026 R primary turnout was ~51% of 2014 and 2010's turnouts*).
We can't infer much from this, though the potential takeaway is positive since it may indicate a lack of wider, non-MAGAt Republican voter participation.
However, let's keep working hard to unify and make this come true in November instead of giving Trump what he needs (a splintered Dem party across single issues-driven coalitions).
*R votes cast volume (rough estimates)
- 2026: 401,118
- 2014: 779,520
- 2010: 785,660
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