HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » Being this mathematically... » Reply #10

Response to dsc (Original post)

Sun May 26, 2013, 05:57 AM

10. Depending what precise event he's discussing, he may well be right and his critics wrong.


If he's making the claim that that area has somehow "used up" all its being-hit-by-tornadoes luck and therefor is less likely to be hit than other places, then that is indeed a classic statistical fallacy.

But the odds of an area being hit by (the same number of tornadoes as hit you in the last 14 years) in the next 14 years are indeed immeasurably lower if that number is 2 than if it is 0. Your next result is less likely to be the same as your last result if you've just experienced a statistical fluke than if you've just had something usual happen to you.

And I suspect that the odds of any given place being hit by two tornadoes in the next 14 years are indeed essentially zero, even in the heart of tornado alley (although my meteorology isn't as strong as my statistics, so I'm not confident of that).



Reply to this post

Back to OP Alert abuse Link to post in-thread

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 21 replies Author Time Post
dsc May 2013 OP
calimary May 2013 #1
TheDebbieDee May 2013 #2
SharonAnn May 2013 #3
JBoy May 2013 #12
dimbear May 2013 #4
LostOne4Ever May 2013 #5
laundry_queen May 2013 #6
pansypoo53219 May 2013 #7
davekriss May 2013 #18
Jim Lane May 2013 #21
Jim__ May 2013 #8
kdmorris May 2013 #9
LineReply Depending what precise event he's discussing, he may well be right and his critics wrong.
Donald Ian Rankin May 2013 #10
dsc May 2013 #13
Donald Ian Rankin May 2013 #14
dsc May 2013 #16
davekriss May 2013 #20
Warren DeMontague May 2013 #11
Apophis May 2013 #15
Logical May 2013 #17
MineralMan May 2013 #19
Please login to view edit histories.