HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » Being this mathematically... » Reply #18

Response to pansypoo53219 (Reply #7)

Sun May 26, 2013, 11:28 AM

18. Mr Coburn, meet Mr Bernoulli

A Bernoulli trial concerns the probability of an event happening now and going forward. The past has no influence on future probability.

Say you have flipped a coin 10 times and each time it came up heads. Wow, what are the odds of that happening? Very low, of course (0.097% to be precise). So the odds of turning up heads on toss 11 must be very low, right? Wrong. The odds on the next toss remain 50%. The next time a coin is tossed, it has a 50% probability of turning up heads vs. tails.

So what are the odds of Moore getting hit again? The same as they were the day before the last tornado.

Reply to this post

Back to OP Alert abuse Link to post in-thread

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 21 replies Author Time Post
dsc May 2013 OP
calimary May 2013 #1
TheDebbieDee May 2013 #2
SharonAnn May 2013 #3
JBoy May 2013 #12
dimbear May 2013 #4
LostOne4Ever May 2013 #5
laundry_queen May 2013 #6
pansypoo53219 May 2013 #7
LineLineNew Reply Mr Coburn, meet Mr Bernoulli
davekriss May 2013 #18
Jim Lane May 2013 #21
Jim__ May 2013 #8
kdmorris May 2013 #9
Donald Ian Rankin May 2013 #10
dsc May 2013 #13
Donald Ian Rankin May 2013 #14
dsc May 2013 #16
davekriss May 2013 #20
Warren DeMontague May 2013 #11
Apophis May 2013 #15
Logical May 2013 #17
MineralMan May 2013 #19
Please login to view edit histories.