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Jim Lane

(11,175 posts)
21. You're being too kind to Coburn.
Mon May 27, 2013, 01:18 AM
May 2013

Your argument implicitly assumes a fair coin -- 50% probability on each flip. In the case Coburn's addressing, the analogous assumption is probably not valid.

Coins are generally fair, but loaded dice do exist (as cheating devices), so let's switch to that example. You and Mr. Bernoulli could say that if you roll two dice and get snake-eyes (a 1 and a 1), the odds on getting snake-eyes again on the second roll are the same: 1 in 36. True enough. BUT if you roll the dice 10 times and get snake-eyes every time (10 in a row), that's quite astounding -- probability, assuming the dice to be fair, of less than 1 in three quadrillion. At that point, I'd be convinced that it was far more likely that I'd gotten my hands on loaded dice. If I stop assuming fair dice, then the chance getting the eleventh snake-eyes is more than 1 in 36.

Now, cut to meteorology. Tornadoes aren't distributed at random across the globe. Coin flips and dice rolls have no memory, but tornadoes do, in the sense that the 2014 tornado season is not an independent event (in the mathematical sense) from the 2013 season. This tornado is evidence that Moore's location is one that makes it more likely to be hit by a tornado.

Put another way, suppose all you know about two towns in Oklahoma is that one was hit by a tornado this year and one wasn't. Coburn says that, for 2014, the one that was hit this year is less likely to be hit again. In fact, however, that one is more likely to be hit, because of the possibility that the tornado dice are loaded against it.

And he's supposedly a doctor, too. calimary May 2013 #1
I'm sure that his election to the Senate has prevented the death TheDebbieDee May 2013 #2
And he doesn't understand statistics and probability? How'd he ever graduate? SharonAnn May 2013 #3
Bad news: you've got a broken leg. JBoy May 2013 #12
Pathetic ignorance, Senator! You think they call it Tornado Alley for nothing? dimbear May 2013 #4
He needs to look up LostOne4Ever May 2013 #5
unfortunately he's not the only one who has been spouting this nonsense. laundry_queen May 2013 #6
odds for a town hit at least 4 times? 2 yrs in a row as well? pansypoo53219 May 2013 #7
Mr Coburn, meet Mr Bernoulli davekriss May 2013 #18
You're being too kind to Coburn. Jim Lane May 2013 #21
It's thinking like that that's put this country in the mess it's in. Jim__ May 2013 #8
Sure, because the weather is intelligent kdmorris May 2013 #9
Depending what precise event he's discussing, he may well be right and his critics wrong. Donald Ian Rankin May 2013 #10
that isn't what he said dsc May 2013 #13
Is he wrong? Even in their heartland, aren't most places not hit by tornadoes most of the time? Donald Ian Rankin May 2013 #14
the statement clearly implied that it was now less than it was before dsc May 2013 #16
(see post 18) davekriss May 2013 #20
How old does he think the Earth is? Warren DeMontague May 2013 #11
How in the hell is this man a doctor??? Apophis May 2013 #15
Many people are this stupid. It explains why Roulette makes so much money..... Logical May 2013 #17
You'll need to tell that to the voters in his state. MineralMan May 2013 #19
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