Analysis: Why Russia's Crimea move fails legal test

[pampango]

31. Do you wonder why they moved the date of the referendum from May 25 to March 30 to March 16?

Are Putin and Crimean Russian authorities worried that a 3-month delay might jeopardize the pro-Russia outcome of the vote? Forecasting the political mood (and the status of Russian forces) that far into the future was too risky to base your foreign policy on an unknown referendum outcome. Plus the current diplomatic confrontation with Europe and the US could benefit from a favorable referendum outcome ASAP.

After all, a little over 40% of Crimeans are not ethnic Russians (Ukrainians and Tatar Muslims) and are likely to vote overwhelmingly to remain part of Ukraine. Among the ethnic Russians there will be some that see no need to be governed by people of their own ethnicity (imagine that) or are liberals who see a more liberal future with Europe than with Russia or see themselves as both Ukrainian and ethnically Russia and don't want to change that.

The outcome of a legitimate referendum (with a couple of months of debate and time to get monitors in place) would be far from a foregone conclusion. So it was decided to move the date up once and then once again so that the 'climate' for the referendum was more predictable and favorable. (Needless to say, a negative outcome to a referendum on becoming part of Russia would be a major embarrassment to Putin. Most Russian know that embarrassing Putin is not how you get ahead in this world.)

Also reports are that the only election monitors who will be invited are Russians. The UN and OSCE cannot even get peacekeeping monitors into Crimea, much less election monitors - so this is an ideal time to hold a referendum from the pro-Russian perspective.