Rump got 50% in IL13. Romne was pretty much a split when he ran. Davis did not exactly have the "sweeping victory" that gets claimed in some quarters.
I appreciate the insight analysis od the voting history gives, but those numbers are not fixed in concrete. The day after that ACA repeal vote district was opined by Cook Political Report to have shifted to "Leaning GOP" rather than staying the solid Republican designation that it had been prior to that. (Roskam went to a "Likely R" designation also, I might add.) There is currently an active and visible movement afoot in the 13th to "Repeal and Replace Rodney" and it shows NO signs of slowing down in the near future. Davis does nothing to sooth that, either. His PR is lackluster at best. He's refused utterly to hold any sort of public forums or meetings and has openly referred to protesters as being paid and unworthy of his time.
I also want to point out that Callas (who ran against Devis in the year Romney ran) seriously under performed that year. There was an appreciable drop off in her numbers, and when you look at historic Dem performance in the district it's glaring. This last election for Davis had a Dem candidate that did not present well, with a campaign that was both underfunded and without management. Candidate selection has not exactly been the best here in the past couple elections.
The 13th is a gerrymandered mess, there's no way other way to say it. It is maybe not quite as strongly GOP as they like to brag that it is, however, and Davis is in no way the master of politics that seems to be the outside opinion. With work I think the 13th can be flipped.
Laura
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