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(5,400 posts)
80. We're looking at how Sanders is trending with people who are exposed to the campaign's message
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 09:53 AM
Aug 2015

In defense of the pollsters I'll say that their models aren't designed to account for the specific type of phenomenon that the Sanders campaign represents. Their models are based mostly around the depressing predictability of how voters react in the Skinner box environment of large, extremely well funded, elections.

It would be dishonest for pollsters to use a new methodology. Though I'll be interested to see if Nate Silver is open about this if asked. I understand his livelihood is based on the uncannily good models he uses, but he is a scientist and should be honest about the limitations of prediction.

There are some importantly unusual features to the Sanders campaign. The degree of how important they are, and the number of them, is what is going to show the limits to the utility of the models Silver uses.

Ask Silver if his models could have predicted the surge of Ross Perot in 92. And Perot was seriously lacking in several attributes that Sanders has in spades. Sanders has the record for championing people that the Perot campaign merely gave a nod to. Sanders has decades of experience with the legislative process. Sanders has decades of support for important civil rights causes under his belt. Sanders has decades of campaigning and politicking in unpleasant circumstances and environments behind him.

Though the main point of superiority is that Sanders is running on the most evolved version of the Democratic Party platform I've yet to see. Because Sanders has chosen not to take big donations from monied interests, he and his campaign could craft a platform that would have the utmost appeal to members of the Democratic party (and the nation as a whole).

Silver should consider the Perot phenomenon, look at how the Sanders campaign is greatly superior to it, and conclude he needs to come up with something more specific to this campaign. He might make just such an announcement if Sanders does a notch better than even the already revised upwards forecasts for the earliest contests and/or later very significant polling.

P.S. Only now did I really think about how Perot was up against a Clinton and a Bush. The huge difference her obviously is that Senator Sanders is competing in the Democratic primary, and not against Bush and Clinton at the same time. He doesn't get the spoiler vote though he does appeal to those who aren't happy with our system.

Yay! HappyPlace Aug 2015 #1
+1 glinda Aug 2015 #2
I'm getting in on it... Eleanors38 Aug 2015 #118
Hi Trajan! Great news! oregonjen Aug 2015 #3
Hey Jen ... Trajan Aug 2015 #11
Yep, I went with family and it was amazing! oregonjen Aug 2015 #43
As another poster said, PatrickforO Aug 2015 #4
I hope they do more than that, like donate and volunteer. merrily Aug 2015 #104
Nice! Bubzer Aug 2015 #5
Awesome! peacebird Aug 2015 #6
This message was self-deleted by its author Ed Suspicious Aug 2015 #7
TO THE GREATEST! Ed Suspicious Aug 2015 #8
\/\/ O O T L0oniX Aug 2015 #9
Sweet! dgibby Aug 2015 #10
Clintons And Bushes Should Unite Against Him billhicks76 Aug 2015 #12
Its not like that hasn't happened before Mnpaul Aug 2015 #21
It's not about them. It's about how much we are willing to do for Bernie. merrily Aug 2015 #105
Yep, the BFFs watch out for each other. Arugula Latte Aug 2015 #113
I'm sure glad that "Bernie's Surge Is Over" ! John Poet Aug 2015 #13
No Citizen Need Settle For The Lesser Of Two Corporate Evils - Go Bernie Go cantbeserious Aug 2015 #14
Go Bernie Go! SoapBox Aug 2015 #15
After that, the next poll will see him beating HRC in IOWA! Elmer S. E. Dump Aug 2015 #115
But its a whitebread state in his neighborhood Indepatriot Aug 2015 #16
Yup. It's like repubs like Joe Scarborough saying Occupy Wall Street is just a brief CTyankee Aug 2015 #67
Bernie also talks about wealth inequality. That is very important. AFAIK, he's the only one talking merrily Aug 2015 #106
That's not a surge, that's a HURRICANE!!! Zorra Aug 2015 #17
:evilgrin: WillyT Aug 2015 #18
INDEED! nt Plucketeer Aug 2015 #75
If Bernie gets the nomination, will other Dem politicians move to the left? candelista Aug 2015 #19
If Bernie gets the nomination you will start to see real Democrats wilsonbooks Aug 2015 #33
cool restorefreedom Aug 2015 #85
To borrow a phrase from the late Spiro Agnew swilton Aug 2015 #20
They don't realize what they are up against ... Trajan Aug 2015 #23
I think the Old Guard is underestimating social media. Arugula Latte Aug 2015 #112
Rather, they are misunderstand it. Hoppy Aug 2015 #123
They understand it Baadger Aug 2015 #130
Hope so! Arugula Latte Aug 2015 #137
Thanks! Baadger Aug 2015 #158
I think he has a "can't see the forest for the trees" issue. RichVRichV Aug 2015 #141
LOL - you sound like an impudent snob from some effete corps :) nt KingCharlemagne Aug 2015 #147
The beginning of a fitting end to the Clinton campaign.. magicmama Aug 2015 #22
Do not bet on her ending her campaign. merrily Aug 2015 #103
The serious red-baiting will commence shortly, methinks. - nt KingCharlemagne Aug 2015 #148
You mean referring to Sanders as "the socialist"? Already begun by merrily Aug 2015 #151
One state in the Bernie column, 49 to go... fbc Aug 2015 #24
48 - He's gonna win Vermont. (nt) jeff47 Aug 2015 #29
! George II Aug 2015 #32
That's the thing PSPS Aug 2015 #50
I don't think this is the last we'll see of news like this ibegurpard Aug 2015 #25
Expect to hear polls don't matter. Spitfire of ATJ Aug 2015 #26
Sounds like it's only a 'defeatist prognosis' when it's not the math you like. onehandle Aug 2015 #27
Now all you need is to completely change our election laws jeff47 Aug 2015 #30
We're looking at how Sanders is trending with people who are exposed to the campaign's message Babel_17 Aug 2015 #80
Very insightful. Thanks for posting. nt snagglepuss Aug 2015 #100
Why now juajen Aug 2015 #128
No it's not. RichVRichV Aug 2015 #135
"Can he do the job, and does he really want this job" quakerboy Aug 2015 #140
Well, 2012 was out of the question :) Babel_17 Aug 2015 #142
I don't think Sanders ever wanted to run. merrily Aug 2015 #152
And disregard the Vegas book odds, too. LanternWaste Aug 2015 #119
"More accurate than polling" means they do better than 95% wrong. jeff47 Aug 2015 #127
Don't give them any ideas. Nt PassingFair Aug 2015 #144
Just a matter of time. JDPriestly Aug 2015 #34
When does that national primary happen again? frylock Aug 2015 #78
March 1st, 2016. nt onehandle Aug 2015 #79
Thanks. I'd better mark that on my calendar. frylock Aug 2015 #81
38 states disappeared? jeff47 Aug 2015 #84
Just remember that upward trending candidates that win early primaries have absolutely no effect RichVRichV Aug 2015 #132
who hoo!! nt restorefreedom Aug 2015 #28
But while Sanders has surged ahead in New Hampshire... George II Aug 2015 #31
Thats what the hillery supporters said about wilsonbooks Aug 2015 #35
That's a creative use of the post hoc ergo prompter hoc fallacy. LanternWaste Aug 2015 #120
Grammar\Usage Nazi here: 'Post hoc, ergo propter hoc fallacy' (and KingCharlemagne Aug 2015 #149
People say that because Hillary's lead seemed insurmountable bobbobbins01 Aug 2015 #37
The theory of electability is only valid as long as it is adhered to. n/t Betty Karlson Aug 2015 #49
Brilliant! demwing Aug 2015 #61
Using with permission is not stealing. Betty Karlson Aug 2015 #91
Nobody that I know of thought Clinton's lead in New Hampshire, in fact many have... George II Aug 2015 #98
That's not about electability, it's about inevitability. Qutzupalotl Aug 2015 #39
Bernie does not face an electability problem among his staunch supporters. Enthusiast Aug 2015 #90
Wanna make a bet? Admiral Loinpresser Aug 2015 #93
WOW! K&R !! secondwind Aug 2015 #36
Excellent Progress boatsnhose Aug 2015 #38
Right on! Power to the people! Jack Rabbit Aug 2015 #40
Feel the Bern brothers and sisters, feel the Bern. totodeinhere Aug 2015 #41
Well vadermike Aug 2015 #42
Nothing On CNN, MSN, Huff, Koz Nada Zilch Yallow Aug 2015 #44
The media blackout seems to be working for him. Le Taz Hot Aug 2015 #48
The revolution will not be televised! walkthewalkorstfu Aug 2015 #54
Indeed tabasco Aug 2015 #72
Actually CNN/Ashley Banfield (sp?) had a blurb on it Chipper Chat Aug 2015 #77
it was on msbc today questionseverything Aug 2015 #107
One word!! CountAllVotes Aug 2015 #45
K & R AzDar Aug 2015 #46
Awesome news! BeanMusical Aug 2015 #47
"Clinton is still widely considered to be the likely nominee" 65% vs Sanders 11% riversedge Aug 2015 #51
So Bernie wins the "who would you vote for" question Fearless Aug 2015 #53
You should reformat your post for readability! nt tblue37 Aug 2015 #145
Sing along with me... Fearless Aug 2015 #52
gotta love the classics restorefreedom Aug 2015 #86
Clinton Followers Are Fake billhicks76 Aug 2015 #55
538 admits they got it wrong ... twitter Ichingcarpenter Aug 2015 #56
That's not quite what he said. Adrahil Aug 2015 #58
. LiberalElite Aug 2015 #64
I know, right? Adrahil Aug 2015 #66
Not that much difference, the last poll I saw had Hillary ahead by 6 or 8 points, but A Simple Game Aug 2015 #97
I haven't heard a fucking cricket in 6 weeks.... catnhatnh Aug 2015 #71
Nice bon mot! Much appreciated. - nt KingCharlemagne Aug 2015 #150
It's not in marked disagreement. It follows trends. RichVRichV Aug 2015 #138
I don't necessarially disagree... Adrahil Aug 2015 #139
It's a Republican Poll videohead5 Aug 2015 #57
that Hillary has sunk from a 30 point lead to a statistical tie is a stunning change. nt magical thyme Aug 2015 #74
Feel the Bern Deadbeat Republicans Aug 2015 #59
Feels good. MoonchildCA Aug 2015 #83
KICK! LiberalElite Aug 2015 #60
Great news! wolfie001 Aug 2015 #62
This is such great news. And, this is BEFORE the debates!! WooHoo!! stillwaiting Aug 2015 #63
Saw this last night, MuseRider Aug 2015 #65
Let's remember Robbins Aug 2015 #68
Expect Florida and Michigan to jump the primary schedule if this is the case. nt PassingFair Aug 2015 #69
I wouldn't count Hillary out in NH just yet she was down bigdarryl Aug 2015 #70
That was close to the primary. She was leading in 2007. jeff47 Aug 2015 #87
"a race once considered a lock" Babel_17 Aug 2015 #73
But, but, but....Hillary supporters and the MSM are constantly reminding us, NorthCarolina Aug 2015 #76
Two points: George II Aug 2015 #82
My First Interaction on DU since Gore V Bush Days NowSam Aug 2015 #88
Great to have you back! n/t Admiral Loinpresser Aug 2015 #92
Welcome back. Did you know DU's first day was 1/20/01, the day shrub was sworn in as pres? uppityperson Aug 2015 #96
Thanks! NowSam Aug 2015 #116
I am curious and notice you missed answering. uppityperson Aug 2015 #157
Kicked and recommended a whole bunch! Enthusiast Aug 2015 #89
Now the fight begins in earnest. Admiral Loinpresser Aug 2015 #94
The real Socialists and Communists with whom I communicate may have helped innoculate KingCharlemagne Aug 2015 #153
Real question. lark Aug 2015 #95
Sanders is only leading in NH in one poll so far. NT Eric J in MN Aug 2015 #101
It's exciting ShrimpPoboy Aug 2015 #99
"he does face what appears to be an electability problem, even among his staunch supporters" Amimnoch Aug 2015 #102
This message was self-deleted by its author chknltl Aug 2015 #131
the loud mouths from Bernie Sanders??? PatrynXX Aug 2015 #108
A sample size of 442 respondents is very low Yavin4 Aug 2015 #109
Ready for a Bernie scream ambush??? Helen Borg Aug 2015 #110
Watch them fall... LiberalLovinLug Aug 2015 #111
You mean watch Bernie's poll numbers fall in the next poll of NH done by a different polling firm. Metric System Aug 2015 #114
I think Bernie supporters are smart enough Trajan Aug 2015 #121
Holy shit!!! Might it happen?!?!?!?!? nt adigal Aug 2015 #117
WOW humbled_opinion Aug 2015 #122
YES! Bernie for President 2016 Dont call me Shirley Aug 2015 #124
Go Bernie go!!!!!! Initech Aug 2015 #125
bogus Kammer Aug 2015 #126
'cause if there's one thing the right wing likes it's an actual social democrat with broad appeal MisterP Aug 2015 #134
Let's say the Boston Herald poll is wrong, and the NBC poll is right. Eric J in MN Aug 2015 #146
This poll is only as good as the pollster Gothmog Aug 2015 #129
It's unfortunate that you think it is your mission Trajan Aug 2015 #154
I like living in the real world where electablity and viability are issues Gothmog Aug 2015 #155
you big old meanie.... BooScout Aug 2015 #156
I am glad that this is shaping up to be an actual contest... rury Aug 2015 #133
Winning. K&R nt TBF Aug 2015 #136
And his crowds just keep getting bigger & bigger.......nt 7962 Aug 2015 #143
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