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In reply to the discussion: Democrats want 'major role' for Sanders: Reuters/Ipsos poll [View all]pnwmom
(108,925 posts)which was only developed a few years ago, is not the same as used by other respected polling organizations. They don't use random samples and can't report margin of error.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/20/opinion/stop-the-polling-insanity.html
OVER the past few weeks, cable news networks and other media sites have trumpeted wild fluctuations and surprising results in polling on the presumed general-election matchup between Donald J. Trump and Hillary Clinton.
The Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll showed a roller-coaster ride: It went from a 13-point Clinton lead on May 4 to a tie just five days later.
SNIP
The problem is that the polls that make the news are also the ones most likely to be wrong. And to folks like us, who know the polling game and can sort out real trends from normal perturbations, too many of this years polls, and their coverage, have been cringeworthy.
Take the Reuters/Ipsos survey. It showed huge shifts during a time when there were no major events. There is a robust scholarship, using sophisticated panel surveys, that demonstrates remarkable stability in voter preferences, especially in times of intense partisan preferences and tribal political identities. The chances that the shifts seen in these polls are real and not artifacts of sample design and polling flaws? Close to zero.