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RussBLib

(8,984 posts)
74. convention bounce is all
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 01:45 PM
Jul 2016

some people obviously respond positively to all the anger and hate

those numbers should go back down after the Dem convention and Hillary will probably pull ahead again

Silver's a jackass, and not because of this. Dawgs Jul 2016 #1
It's data Loki Liesmith Jul 2016 #5
Didn't Silver's site predict the last two bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #6
Because Capt. Obvious Jul 2016 #18
Simple math predicted the last two elections. Dawgs Jul 2016 #73
I think the reason he's calling Silver a jackass is because the dude's a jackass StrictlyRockers Jul 2016 #76
Exactly. forest444 Jul 2016 #82
We believe him when he says Hillary is ahead adigal Jul 2016 #95
Not bad Loki Liesmith Jul 2016 #2
I hope you're right. bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #11
Moore also said Romney was going to win. I suspect Moore's comment is to encourage people to GOTV still_one Jul 2016 #16
Moore is definitely using psychology to get out the vote. bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #23
The truth is, anyone who votes for Trump is either a racist, or willfully ignorant. still_one Jul 2016 #30
I don't know why you'd give anyone the benefit of the doubt and call them ignorant... harrose Jul 2016 #96
I cannot argue with that still_one Jul 2016 #97
WTF humbled_opinion Jul 2016 #3
He said it was a convention bounce that's likely to fade. bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #13
"If the election were held today…" regnaD kciN Jul 2016 #4
Message auto-removed Name removed Jul 2016 #9
You are correct. bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #17
And if the election was held last week, Hillary would win stopbush Jul 2016 #61
Yikes I don't understand how Chimichurri Jul 2016 #7
Nate's Pretty Good, but I think we should wait till after Dem Convention REALforever Jul 2016 #8
+1 jonno99 Jul 2016 #34
Fuck Nate Silver onecaliberal Jul 2016 #10
HE'S WORSE THAN RALPH NADER Capt. Obvious Jul 2016 #19
Talk about trying to influence the outcome. onecaliberal Jul 2016 #42
AND CATCH ON FIRE Capt. Obvious Jul 2016 #49
Why? Ace Rothstein Jul 2016 #32
No way Pennsylvania/Wisconsin go Trump tman Jul 2016 #12
Wisconsin to Trump? Um, no. Still In Wisconsin Jul 2016 #14
Exactly tman Jul 2016 #22
Then how did that Wanker win re-election? ChairmanAgnostic Jul 2016 #64
Messaging Jimbo S Jul 2016 #77
On top of some fine political figures, there was Joe McCarthy, too. ChairmanAgnostic Jul 2016 #78
Off year elections and an incompetent state party. Still In Wisconsin Jul 2016 #84
Hey, I feel for you. We have Rauner, a POS who is smarter and more evil ChairmanAgnostic Jul 2016 #85
When Rauner was elected I thought to myself, "Oh no not them too!" Still In Wisconsin Jul 2016 #87
Your secret is safe with me. I promise to tell no one. ChairmanAgnostic Jul 2016 #88
I think you're right... the Kochs seem to have kicked Wanker (and Ron "Senator Dumbass" Johnson Still In Wisconsin Jul 2016 #90
Trump doesn't need either of those to win. RAFisher Jul 2016 #65
Will depend on turnout for both. But Trump needs neither. harun Jul 2016 #94
Think a Majority of Americans Are Bigots and Trump... TomCADem Jul 2016 #15
I am not convinced they are a majority, but there are a hell of a lot more than we are led to believ still_one Jul 2016 #20
People Hear What They Want To Hear... TomCADem Jul 2016 #31
Or, perhaps, they are just louder. ChairmanAgnostic Jul 2016 #92
good point still_one Jul 2016 #93
Just went to 538. Shows Clinton 53.7, Trump 46.2 n/t Tess49 Jul 2016 #21
From Silver's Twitter feed (posted 2 hours ago) bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #26
You have to click on "now cast" Major Nikon Jul 2016 #29
Please take this seriously -- Trump is a very real threat in November uawchild Jul 2016 #24
Dumpster fire of a convention is putting it nicely. His convention was an unmitigated disaster. LonePirate Jul 2016 #43
It's freaking scary bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #44
What will happen if Trump actually has a good week in the press? uawchild Jul 2016 #45
Every obstacle, double your effort! bucolic_frolic Jul 2016 #25
Ummm....no it doesn't. Hillary is still ahead UMTerp01 Jul 2016 #27
Silver posted this on Twitter 2 hours ago. bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #33
By probability only. Wait till after the convention - right now this means little Yo_Mama Jul 2016 #28
With the fucked up Convention they had... Helen Borg Jul 2016 #37
Agreed. bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #41
Yep - and it's still a long way from November...nt jonno99 Jul 2016 #38
This is very serious. We have to face it, Trump could win. And the world will lose. Doodley Jul 2016 #35
Ooops. Helen Borg Jul 2016 #36
HahaHahaHahaHahaHahaHaha NaturalHigh Jul 2016 #39
538 made a point of saying the polling is very erratic this early. bullimiami Jul 2016 #40
from 538's site regarding now-casts: unblock Jul 2016 #46
Thanks for posting. n/t bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #48
Thought the polls don't mean a thing until Labor Day tralala Jul 2016 #47
Sounds like non-scense to me Equinox Moon Jul 2016 #50
That's scary. The country has officially gone nuts. Vinca Jul 2016 #51
Use this as motivation to unite! Dump DWS, focus on Sanders and Warren supporting Hillary, and put Attorney in Texas Jul 2016 #52
More reliable per Nate himself. Cattledog Jul 2016 #53
I cannot get emotional about polls or odds until at least September. merrily Jul 2016 #54
Maybe it's time for DU to start banning right wing trolls? Democat Jul 2016 #55
Here are todays numbers. I guess he's hedging his bets by picking both? George II Jul 2016 #56
Not according to the 538 polls+ or polls only. Trump got a bump. Now for the Democratic Convention judesedit Jul 2016 #57
This is a serious concern jimlup Jul 2016 #58
Ugh vadermike Jul 2016 #59
You sound suspiciously like you want Trump to win Democat Jul 2016 #66
Funny how oswaldactedalone Jul 2016 #60
Anti-intellectualism exists on the right and left sadly. RAFisher Jul 2016 #67
Bullshit shireen Jul 2016 #62
I like this site Mister K Jul 2016 #63
That's a frickin' landslide. haha bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #71
thanks! Grey Lemercier Jul 2016 #83
No it doesn't and it never has. I check it every day. The Second Stone Jul 2016 #68
what the OP is referencing is fivethirtyeights prediction if the election were held TODAY... yawnmaster Jul 2016 #69
We all better get busy and nip this NOW. sinkingfeeling Jul 2016 #70
Stop attacking the messenger and take this seriously. Oneironaut Jul 2016 #72
convention bounce is all RussBLib Jul 2016 #74
The Dems need to campaign more effectively to get past the barrier of the corporate MSM. nt tblue37 Jul 2016 #75
I wish I didn't see this. Scorpionflyx Jul 2016 #79
Trump will win if we don't unite. DesertRat Jul 2016 #86
You're not kidding. Scorpionflyx Jul 2016 #89
Time to get my EU passport in order before BREXIT limits me to only living in England ... VMA131Marine Jul 2016 #80
Post Convention skew. All the media talked about was "Trump".... haele Jul 2016 #81
Not now we can do it Jul 2016 #91
Amazing what a well run convention will do for you... heresAthingdotcom Jul 2016 #98
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