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In reply to the discussion: FiveThirtyEight election forecast shows Trump ahead [View all]haele
(12,647 posts)Two weeks from now, it will probably be Hillary with a 15 percentage lead - because at least half of the people polled aren't really thinking about who they're actually going to be voting for, or even if they get off their duffs and vote in November. Unless those surveyed also give specifics about what is important to them and why that makes them favor one candidate or another, it's pretty much an exercise in Media push-polling, and not really informative as to how a candidate is really doing. "Who will I vote for now?" is a silly question if the so-called independent voter hasn't even made up his/her mind to get out and vote because there's too much else to think about or pay attention to right now.
Unless I was part of a campaign and looking at the questions asked and how the answers were categorized so as to tweak strategy, all these polls really mean very little until late September, and even then, polls are little more than extrapolated trends with a huge margin of error and environmental factors that can affect the results.
Haele