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Denzil_DC

(7,187 posts)
44. The problem is that there's no other way under the UK constitution to approach this,
Sat Apr 15, 2017, 10:15 AM
Apr 2017

unless you expect the majority of people in Scotland just to shut up and accept Brexit. It's not a "trick", it's responsible governance, so give it and Sturgeon some due credit. She's one of the few adults in the room at the moment.

The goalposts have moved over the years. Thatcher is on record as saying that if the SNP (at the time the only pro-independence party, but now the Greens are on board) got a majority of the Scottish MPs at Westminster, that would be enough to trigger independence. That bar was well and truly passed at the last UK parliamentary elections - 56 out of 59 MPs are SNP.

Meanwhile, Scotland voted 62-38% Remain in the Brexit vote. The SNP's manifesto at the last Holyrood elections reserved the right to call another referendum if there was a material change in circumstances such as the UK leaving the EU. One of the "No" (to independence) campaign's main planks was that Scotland would have to leave the EU if it voted for independence, and that, among other scaremongering, swayed a lot of voters. The SNP again became the largest party in the Scottish Parliament at those elections, and supported by the Greens, forms the Scottish administration. That's quite a mandate. How could Sturgeon not follow this through and retain any credibility for her or her party?

I contrast the two years of the Scottish independence referendum campaign with the Brexit campaign. There was very lively debate and engagement at all levels of society in Scotland during the indyref. The "Yes" campaign was expected to have hard and fast answers to each and every question - currency, trade, you name it, and the SNP issued a detailed White Paper, which was picked apart at great length by those opposed. Even now, we know vastly more about what Scottish independence might have looked like than what Brexit might end up looking like.

The answer so far from May to calls for another indyref has been "Now is not the time." Nobody wanted the referendum now. The plan would be to hold the referendum when the Brexit negotiations are complete. This makes a lot of sense, because at that point all the other EU countries will be considering and preparing to vote on the final details.

The only country that has no prospect of a vote about the UK's future outside the EU at that point is the UK itself!

If Scotland doesn't get a referendum or if it votes to stay in the UK, the next step for May or her successor will be to hack away at the hard-won gains in Scottish devolved powers through statutory instruments, most likely with no opportunity for parliamentary scrutiny, neutering or even abolishing the Scottish Parliament. And that government will have carte blanche to turn the UK into an offshore tax haven and multinationals' playground, unless the EU manage to fend that off in negotiations. I don't want to live in that UK.

The whole situation is not of our choosing. I'd be in favour of setting a more decisive bar in a future indyref. I think about two-thirds of the electorate would be achievable, given that at the start of the last indyref, with a lot more scope for Project Fear from the "No" side, support for independence was around the mid-20% and ended up at about 45%, and currently stands at anywhere between 45% and 50-odd, depending which polls you believe.

I guess an alternative might be for Sturgeon to call another Scottish election to seek a mandate for independence, never mind a referendum, but she also has a country to run in the mean time.

Such decisions should never be put to referendum. JHan Apr 2017 #1
Disagree, but if ever was case needing Do-Over, this is it. Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2017 #5
From what I read, the younger people were mostly for Remain, the older mostly for Leave (nm) progree Apr 2017 #14
Yes, but enough younger people & some older people really regret their Leave vote. . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2017 #17
No doubt, and they will regret it even more with the passage of time (nm) progree Apr 2017 #18
Yep. JHan Apr 2017 #24
You're right about globalization and the whipped up aversion to it however there were real issues.. JHan Apr 2017 #20
Yup you put the finger on a number of issues Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2017 #25
"countries like Greece and Spain could spend into a hole in the ground..." Ghost Dog Apr 2017 #35
Your version has a lot of truth in it. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2017 #37
Damned right. n/t Ghost Dog Apr 2017 #40
There are TWO kinds of globalization Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2017 #28
Globalization is reality. Denzil_DC Apr 2017 #43
thoughtful post, thanks for that. JHan Apr 2017 #46
You said it. It's why people elect others to run the country in a Democracy. randome Apr 2017 #6
No, there isn't any problem with asking for a referendum but for major issues something like that cstanleytech Apr 2017 #11
At the least, it should be 50% of ELIGIBLE VOTERS.... Wounded Bear Apr 2017 #21
The problem with that is that you can simply flip the question because all referenda are gonna fail. Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2017 #26
that's slightly better but I don't think it will improve things..I try to answer it here: JHan Apr 2017 #22
The problem is that there's no other way under the UK constitution to approach this, Denzil_DC Apr 2017 #44
I have tons of respect for Sturgeon, JHan Apr 2017 #45
+1 Blue_Tires Apr 2017 #15
Conservatism is itself an Act of Self-Harm maxsolomon Apr 2017 #2
+10000 byronius Apr 2017 #13
Then somebody in government needs to have the guts to pipe up and say this clearly. Denzil_DC Apr 2017 #3
With every painful action or act, the smarmy, smirking face of Nigel Farage... Raster Apr 2017 #4
They need to out Farage as a Russian asset tikka Apr 2017 #8
Thanks. Some here really don't want to look at the Russian connection to Calexit, either... Hekate Apr 2017 #16
Nobody wants the Brexit. Even the people who voted Yes in the referendum have changed their minds. DetlefK Apr 2017 #7
Putin wants Brexit. Putin wants to diminish any European unions or relationships... Raster Apr 2017 #10
It is amazing this politics of destruction. Large groups of voters bronxiteforever Apr 2017 #9
Post removed Post removed Apr 2017 #12
Care to rephrase that, pansypoo? "Idiot baby boomers"? That's the cause of all your troubles? Hekate Apr 2017 #19
Future headline: "Rethugs realises installing tRump was an act of great self-harm, bigly." nt kydo Apr 2017 #23
The fact they're going thought this with effectively no opposition party doesn't help Sen. Walter Sobchak Apr 2017 #27
I still remain hopeful that the UK government will go back to the people OnDoutside Apr 2017 #30
The problem is, if the people say "no"... regnaD kciN Apr 2017 #33
If they said no after a second referendum, then that would be it, OnDoutside Apr 2017 #41
There's no way John Callinan would have accidentally OnDoutside Apr 2017 #29
The EU might not even exist in a few years. LittleBlue Apr 2017 #31
They should have realized it before invoking Article 50... regnaD kciN Apr 2017 #32
A little late. That train has left the station. Voltaire2 Apr 2017 #34
If the unelected leaders of the British Government continue Ghost Dog Apr 2017 #36
Cameron was reckless. JHan Apr 2017 #38
Yes. He was selfishly-motivated in the context of the internal politics of his party, Ghost Dog Apr 2017 #39
I feel their pain ... JustABozoOnThisBus Apr 2017 #42
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