Consumer prices rose 0.2% in August as annual inflation rate hits lowest since early 2021

[progree]

8. Shelter, housing, rent,

Here's what I wrote in post #3 above:

Shelter, which is pretty much all rent -- either regular rent or "owners' equivalent rent", has been a problematic issue -- because changes in new rents take several months before they appreciably move the CPI (because of the inertia of 11 months of older rents). It is the largest component of the Core CPI and one of the largest of the regular CPI. Through August, shelter remained elevated at 0.4% month over month for several months, except for a smaller 0.2% increase in June., and a larger 0.5% increase in August. Year-over-year, shelter is up 5.2%

Shelter: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAH1

Core Inflation less Shelter: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L12E
^--This is up 0.0% for 3 months in a row, followed by +0.1% in August. The 3 month annualized average is +0.0% (compare to core of +2.1%)

Click on "More Formatting Options" on the upper right hand of screen, and on the page that appears, choose some or all of: "1-Month Percent Change", "3-Month Percent Change" and "12-Month Percent Change".

Then I found this article --
Here's the inflation breakdown for August 2024 — in one chart, CNBC, 9/11/24
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/here-s-the-inflation-breakdown-for-august-2024-in-one-chart/ar-AA1qosm2

Housing, which is counted in the "services" category, has been a big impediment to overall inflation falling to the Fed's target, economists said.

Shelter is the largest component of the CPI and therefore has an outsized effect on inflation readings.

Housing inflation moves up and down at glacial speed due to how the government measures it, economists said.

Such data quirks mask positive news in the real-time rental market, which has seen minimal inflation for about two years, economists said. Average rents actually deflated, meaning prices actually fell, by 1% in the second quarter of 2024 versus a year earlier, according to the BLS New Tenant Rent Index.

However, shelter CPI inflation has appeared to defy gravity lately: It increased on a monthly basis for two consecutive months, from 0.2% in June to 0.4% in July, and then to 0.5% in August. ((and it was a steady 0.4% each month for several months before June -progree))

"It's puzzling, in all honesty," House said. "[But] I'm of the view that we should continue to see shelter decelerate" given broader trends in the rental market.

Emphasis added