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In reply to the discussion: Post removed [View all]Cicada
(4,533 posts)20. They had Trump with a 25% chance to win. That sounds correct to me.
If I remember correctly the great Nate Silver had it like that too. Unlikely things happen sometimes. That doesnt mean they were likely. So to gauge accuracy of a betting site we need to compare their expected results over many trials. If the have given 25% odds in a thousand elections and the underdog won 250 times, thats excellent. That the betting sites gave Trump better odds than all the experts we saw on TV suggests they are worth paying attention to.
But so far we have limited data on election predictions by betting sites. Maybe youre right.
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With Mueller's help, that slimeball. Wonder how much the Russians paid him.
InAbLuEsTaTe
Mar 2019
#33
The interesting thing about betting sites is they can account for Russian interference.
marylandblue
Mar 2019
#28
By passing a law preventing presidential candidates from getting on the ballot unless they provide
in2herbs
Mar 2019
#7
Are there enough Democratic controlled states for such a thing to matter currently?
cstanleytech
Mar 2019
#23
Economic models point to a Trump blowout in 2020. But a faltering economy or giant scandal could cha
Gothmog
Mar 2019
#9
I hope that the 2020 election is about the ACA and health care and not the economy
Gothmog
Mar 2019
#25
Take nothing for granted but this MF'er will lose 2020. Everything he touches turns to shit so no
Pepsidog
Mar 2019
#13
I think w/ the games rump and Barr just played on us in covering up the Mueller report AND...
SWBTATTReg
Mar 2019
#17