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In reply to the discussion: Post removed [View all]kurtcagle
(1,601 posts)I think the yield curve clearly inverting (it's been heading that way for a while now) and the lousy February job numbers are both yet more indicators that the economy is softening (as ironically, is the very low unemployment percentage - historically, that's actually a fairly reliable sign that a recession is imminent). There were a lot of investors that piled into the market after the disastrous December, pushing the stock market up to about its mid-range, but that's actually another potential indicator - the completion of what's often called a head and shoulders pattern.
Any president inherits the momentum (positive or negative) of their predecessor for about a year before their own policies begin to affect the markets, and the second year represents a transitional ramp up as their own policies began to actually get implemented in the economy. Larger corporate leaders were pretty happy with Trump, but even that's beginning to sour as the tariffs begin to disrupt supply chain availability and costs in that sector have risen.
So, I think that by the time the 2020 elections roll around, Trumps going to be facing some serious headwinds from the economy.