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Denzil_DC

(7,233 posts)
73. From what credible analysis I've seen,
Thu May 12, 2016, 08:22 AM
May 2016

the Tories won seats, predominantly in the regional lists, because they were dogged in getting their vote out and as a result of quirks of our electoral system. To put it in perspective:



Nevertheless, they did numerically double their vote over the low of the last election. How much of that they'll retain over time is another matter.

There have been glib suggestions they may have picked off some ex-Labour voters as well, but a counter-argument holds that it's more likely they attracted centre-right Lib Dems, making inroads into the SNP's hold in rural areas away from the central belt, where under Salmond the SNP had in the past turned Tory/Lib Dem constituencies SNP, so you could maybe see this as a return to form. Their platform was "Ruth Davidson", "a Strong Opposition", "Ruth Davidson", "Unionism" and "Ruth Davidson".

Davidson's not without appeal if you like that sort of thing, and superficially not yer stereotypical Tory. She's one of three of Scotland's party leaders (her, Labour's Dugdale and the Greens' Patrick Harvie) who's come out as gay. She's had an unbelievably easy ride in the media up here, and the next few months are going to be make or break for her as people take a closer look at her and her policy beliefs, which will reveal she's much more a mainstream Tory than initial impressions might suggest.

So you seem to be broadly right about the unionist voters. Demographically, they will diminish in time unless things change radically among younger voters.

Since people like Bad Dog may not have seen my earlier explanations of where I stand when I first started posting here and people can jump to all sorts of conclusions, I am not an SNP member, and likely never will be. I was born and brought up Welsh, and lived in Reading for eight years or so before I moved to Scotland, where I've been for over 30 years now. For years after I abandoned Labour, having been a party activist, I was a floating/tactical voter.

I don't consider Sturgeon my "leader", just my First Minister. I'm a cynical old bastard, and not used to being caught up by politicians, and it's been a long haul for me to grudgingly accept that damn, this woman keeps impressing and surprising me, certainly in comparison to any of her adversaries. And there's some strength in depth in the SNP beyond the caricatures of her and Salmond: Hosie, Swinney, any number of impressive women, and promising, charismatic relative youngsters like Humza Yousaf.

So yes, they wouldn't get my vote if I didn't consider them competent and credible. They've earned that opinion from me.

As for the constitutional question, Holyrood was supposed to herald the death of the SNP, whereas it's actually placed us on a conveyer belt that may be unstoppable. The more powers are devolved, the more apparent it becomes how certain aspects don't add up to joined-up government in Scotland, so other areas need to devolved too. Whether that ever reaches full independence is anybody's guess. My own gut feeling as things stand is that it'll be a relative long, gradual process, and when, if independence does come, it may be at a time when we have more federalism in other areas of the UK too, so it would seem a much less jarring leap than it does now.

And as for online antics, the papers tend to seize gleefully on any Twitter etc. transgressions by pro-independence and SNP supporters, but don't do the same for some of the horrible "unionists" I've witnessed myself, of whom there are plenty. I don't think any of them do anybody any favours, and I wish they'd all cut it out and get a life.

Yes, I hadn't realised it was time for PCC voting again. non sociopath skin Apr 2016 #1
Very true. T_i_B Apr 2016 #4
Oxford City Council is up... LeftishBrit Apr 2016 #2
The Scottish Parliament is run on the D'Hondt voting system Denzil_DC Apr 2016 #3
Got my card through the door just the other day. Bad Dog Apr 2016 #5
London calling... 04alsabi Apr 2016 #6
Welcome to DU; as an ex-Londoner, good to hear from you LeftishBrit Apr 2016 #7
Can I second that. Bad Dog Apr 2016 #8
I originally thought it was Goldsmith's to lose T_i_B Apr 2016 #9
The media coverage has tended to boil it down to two things: 04alsabi Apr 2016 #10
Is Zac Goldsmith related to the Goldsmith who led the "Referendum Party" in the Nineties? Ken Burch Apr 2016 #18
His son. He's an ecological Conservative muriel_volestrangler Apr 2016 #19
Sounds like a surprisingly interesting family. Ken Burch Apr 2016 #21
Bexley...is that the area that used to be Edward Heath's parliamentary constituency? n/t. Ken Burch Apr 2016 #11
It overlaps with it - there have been lots of boundary changes since then. LeftishBrit Apr 2016 #12
Yes, that's right! 04alsabi Apr 2016 #13
I always thought "Old Bexley and Sidcup" sounded like a couple of Beatrix Potter characters. Ken Burch Apr 2016 #17
Good shout! 04alsabi Apr 2016 #20
I think that Sidcup sounds more like an overweight elf vainly attempting to perch on a flower. non sociopath skin Apr 2016 #22
in sunny Wyre forest... Ironing Man Apr 2016 #14
One thing I'm expecting... T_i_B Apr 2016 #23
A reminder: the deadline for registration is the 18th of April 04alsabi Apr 2016 #15
Labour is going to lose badly in Scotland again...and Corbyn is blameless for that. Ken Burch Apr 2016 #16
I think the current anti-semitism issue could also be a factor T_i_B Apr 2016 #24
... Ironing Man Apr 2016 #25
Well... LeftishBrit Apr 2016 #27
I agree with Ken in the Scottish context. Denzil_DC Apr 2016 #26
I disagree about John Mann T_i_B May 2016 #28
OK, he just happened to have a TV camera crew in tow ... Denzil_DC May 2016 #29
The altercation took place in Millbank TV studios T_i_B May 2016 #30
Can't it be both? Denzil_DC May 2016 #31
I agree with you, Denzil. non sociopath skin May 2016 #32
Prediction for The Guardian: Labour to lose 175 seats from 2012 muriel_volestrangler May 2016 #33
It's Polling Day T_i_B May 2016 #34
Same here in South East Northumberland. non sociopath skin May 2016 #38
The other thing to add.... T_i_B May 2016 #42
Voted! 04alsabi May 2016 #35
As long as you aren't in Barnet! T_i_B May 2016 #40
... Ironing Man May 2016 #36
Just voted. Bad Dog May 2016 #37
As I expected, quiet as the grave at our Polling Station. non sociopath skin May 2016 #45
I remember the turnout for that was tiny last time. Bad Dog May 2016 #46
I'll vote this evening in the Scottish parliament elections. Denzil_DC May 2016 #39
Voted this morning for Council and PCC LeftishBrit May 2016 #41
There are also by-elections in Ogmore and Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough muriel_volestrangler May 2016 #43
Heard virtually nothing about Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough one T_i_B May 2016 #44
Scottish results are in. Denzil_DC May 2016 #47
Denzil, I'd be really interested in your views as to why Labour are in freefall in Scotland. non sociopath skin May 2016 #50
I don't know how much I'd claim to be "on the ground", Denzil_DC May 2016 #51
Well, in addition to haemorraging votes to the SNP T_i_B May 2016 #52
I saw it expressed by someone in Labour Denzil_DC May 2016 #53
It suits both the Tories and the SNP Bad Dog May 2016 #54
Can't say I agree with any of that. Denzil_DC May 2016 #55
It was a typo. I meant both. Bad Dog May 2016 #56
In the Scottish context, "bothy parties" isn't inapt! Denzil_DC May 2016 #57
You're honestly saying anglophobia wasn't an issue? Bad Dog May 2016 #58
But if you listen back to what you've just typed, I could retaliate that it sounds like Scotophobia! Denzil_DC May 2016 #59
The difference is Bad Dog May 2016 #60
Shark Jumped Alert!!!1! Denzil_DC May 2016 #61
Which is mostly a reaction to the Anglophobic campaign the SNP launced. Bad Dog May 2016 #62
OK, now you're seriously taxing my patience. Denzil_DC May 2016 #63
Fair enough. Bad Dog May 2016 #64
He's passing show. Denzil_DC May 2016 #65
We had the poll tax too. Bad Dog May 2016 #66
I look at it this way. Denzil_DC May 2016 #67
I don't know how they do it, but it's probably delegated. Bad Dog May 2016 #71
Theory vs practice.... T_i_B May 2016 #68
True. Denzil_DC May 2016 #69
I don't deny the SNP's current appeal T_i_B May 2016 #72
From what credible analysis I've seen, Denzil_DC May 2016 #73
However ... Denzil_DC May 2016 #70
Oxford City Council remains Labour, with only minor changes LeftishBrit May 2016 #48
Looks like Sadiq Khan has won in London T_i_B May 2016 #49
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