Reassessing Corbynism: success, contradictions and a difficult path ahead

[Denzil_DC]

13. Dude, if you're going to pick on an obvious typo

after such a marathon typing session, then I'm about done with such pettiness.

Polls? What's the saying? - They're often more about shaping opinion than reflecting it. Nevertheless, this is from three days ago:

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Brexit: British people have changed their minds on leaving the EU, poll finds

The majority of Britons now want a second referendum on the UK quitting the European Union (EU), according to a new survey.

Fifty-three per cent of people would back a vote on whether to accept the terms of the final Brexit deal, with 47 per cent opposed, a Survation poll found.

When the same question was asked in April, a majority of 54 per cent were against a second referendum.

The survey results suggest there is increasing opposition among the public to a “hard Brexit”.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/british-people-changed-minds-brexit-second-referendum-poll-finds-a7795591.html

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The poll was by Survation (who did well in the election), commissioned by the Mail on Sunday (not quite as bad at the Daily Mail, but not exactly Remain Central). It came up with 69% against "hard brexit". You might find the article's results from Labour voters in another poll for Global Future interesting.

Here's Wikipedia's Poll of Polls roundup on Brexit for mid-2016: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Polls_of_polls

Remain was ahead in each one.

Here's Wikipedia's roundup of post-Referendum polls up to 12-13 June (relying heavily on YouGov, who also did well in the election): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Post.E2.80.93referendum_polling

It's pretty even (bearing in mind margins of error), with 11% or so "undecided", and if there's any trend evident, it's that Remain is gaining ground marginally.

Here's a dandy graph tracking the trend in opinion according to BMG Research, ComRes and Survation: http://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/should-the-united-kingdom-remain-a-member-of-the-european-union-or-leave-the-european-union-asked-after-the-referendum/

It shows much the same.

Here's a similar graph tracking support for a second referendum from Survation: http://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/would-you-support-or-oppose-having-a-second-eu-referendum-to-vote-on-the-exit-deal-when-the-details-are-known/

Similar trend.

Here's another graph tracking YouGov and gfk results on whether people thought in hindsight it was right to vote to leave: http://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/

Similar trend.

Polls which are no doubt the ones you're clinging to that show a substantial majority for Leave only do so if they count "Re-Leavers" - those who've bought into your line that "the people have spoken" so even though it's a rotten idea, what the hell, we should do it anyway. In most political contexts, they'd be seen as "persuadable" or "low-hanging fruit" given a concerted information campaign. And we haven't seen the worst of the chaos that's being unleashed yet.

And all these polls rely on condensing a very complex issue into glib answers - just like the referendum itself.

If you whine any more about the EU, I'm going to be forced to post the YouTube of Monty Python's "What have the Romans ever done for us?" You have been warned.

Be honest, for heaven's sake. The reason you're so gung-ho and dismissive about it is because you're the biggest Corbynite partisan I've ever encountered, and I reckon there's literally nothing he and Labour could do that you wouldn't find a way to excuse and defend. If they did a 180-degree turnaround tomorrow and came out for Remain, you'd be here lecturing us at length on why it was the right thing to do, etc. etc. Meanwhile, you have no skin in the game. Can't you grasp that this is rather annoying?