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Response to T_i_B (Original post)

Mon May 2, 2016, 10:26 AM

33. Prediction for The Guardian: Labour to lose 175 seats from 2012

Using the average of the latest opinion poll results, including the Opinium/Observer poll carried out after the antisemitism row last week, Steve Fisher, of Oxford University, one of the country’s leading elections experts, predicts that Labour could be on course for losses of 175 local council seats, while the Conservatives could gain 30.

On the national equivalent vote share, which tends to be a good predictor of subsequent general elections, Labour looks likely to be one percentage point behind the Conservatives, Fisher calculates – on a par with 2011.

That compares to the six-point lead achieved by Ed Miliband in the 2012 local elections; and approximately 15 points needed for a majority at a general election.
...
Council elections are notoriously difficult to predict, and Fisher points out that Labour could yet make some gains – or even worse losses than his central projection, based on the Conservatives’ average poll lead of 3.8 percentage points, suggests.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/01/jeremy-corbyn-len-mccluskey-attacks-treacherous-labour-mps

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