Dynamic Life Cycle Assessment of Energy Technologies w/ Different Greenhouse Gas Concentration Paths

[NNadir]

6. This is certainly a valid question. My suspicion is that...

...they are looking at systems very much like those we have today, and considering the thermodynamics of systems of today.

We can certainly gather a lot from thermodynamics; the laws of which have proven through history to be rather immutable, and we can certainly learn a lot from forensic analysis of existing systems.

To be clear, I did not read this paper carefully; I merely skimmed it. However, opening it again, and looking at the "methods" section, it seems to be based on a literature search, EIA projections, and IEA projections with "scenarios." Having looked at these projected scenarios over decades of readings of the World Energy Outlook, they all prove to be consistent with "BAU," Business as Usual.

Now, all these wonderful what if projections aside, I am encouraging my son to think of a "different" thermodynamics where we utilize very high temperatures exploiting the rising golden age of materials science. External heat conditions will not matter of the system temperature is, say 1700K and the heat sink is at 1000K, but it will matter if one gets to a steam cycle, a Rankine cycle and is rejecting heat to a body of water, a river, or ocean at 300K. 300K and 310K (or even higher) makes a difference in this case My personal vision, which may or may not be naïve, if not insane, would be to exploit heat pumps with the shipping of heat, perhaps as a supercritical fluid, for use in process or storage as a reheating medium.

Of course, it is difficult to state whether a particular material kept at 1700K in a neutron flux will last less than 20 years, like a wind plant, or 80 years, like the Bruce Power plant is being refurbished to do. I think this is a reason to consider modular components of modular systems.

As for dams, aside from silting up, like all other systems dependent on the weather, so called "renewable energy" systems (excluding of course geothermal energy) it's not clear they will have working fluid reliably, that is water. We need only look at the dying Colorado River system to appreciate this. Even the Columbia River is troubled.

I fully credit what you say however; the farther one projects, the less accuracy one can expect, not that this ever bothered Amory Lovins. He just moves the goal posts, "by 'such and such' year" for the outbreak of nirvana every 20 years like they do in the fusion programs.