Nate Silver's 538: Hillary still favored to win Iowa and NH

[Jarqui]

29. Unfortunately, folks looking for the quick answer don't fully inform themselves

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-we-are-forecasting-the-2016-presidential-primary-election/

"Therefore, we think the models (polls-only model & polls-plus model) are more useful when looked at together."

That one sentence doesn't replace what Nate says at that link about what is behind his analysis. It underscores that before drawing too much conclusion incorrectly like the simplistic top post in this thread, one needs to look a little deeper at what Nate is trying to tell people with this information. Nate should stick to doing what he's doing. People should not stick to interpreting Nate incorrectly.

Normally, I'd lean more towards Nate's polls plus model in the general election. In the primary, I'd currently lean more towards the polls only model because things like endorsements and national polling are in Clinton's favor because Sanders is coming on - folks do not know him and what he stands for well nationally yet. If Sanders wins Iowa and NH, that's going to change - something like it did for Obama. In fact, Sanders good results recently are starting to change the mainstream's view and coverage of his candidacy. I think that will continue to drive Nate's results further towards Sanders over the next couple of weeks.