2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: What comes to my mind when I see the Dems panic about Bernie Sanders... [View all]Hortensis
(58,785 posts)and Bernie hasn't even faced the tough stuff yet? NH and IA both play to Bernie's strengths. After that it gets VERY different. He has some opportunities in some western states, but, like all the others, at this point those states too are still Hillary's to lose.
And then comes the convention and the delegates, and Hillary has pledges from a majority of the superdelegates. These pledges aren't binding, of course, but they also are hers to lose. Bernie has virtually none.
This isn't to say Bernie can't win our nomination. It's to say, get real!
BTW, how come almost none of Bernie's colleagues endorse him? Many want change, so why Hillary instead of him? From Fivethirtyeight.com, updated today:
The Endorsement Primary
In presidential primaries, endorsements have been among the best predictors of which candidates will succeed and which will fail. So were keeping track.
UPDATED 4:02 P.M. EST | JANUARY 20
CANDIDATE REPRESENTATIVES
1 POINT EACH SENATORS
5 POINTS EACH GOVERNORS
10 POINTS EACH TOTAL POINTS
Jeb Bush 51
Marco Rubio 43
Chris Christie 26
Mike Huckabee 26
John Kasich 20
Ted Cruz 17
Rand Paul 15
Lindsey Graham 5
Carly Fiorina 3
Scott Walker 2
Rick Perry 1
Rick Santorum 1
Ben Carson 0
Donald Trump 0
Hillary Clinton 458
Bernie Sanders 2
Martin O'Malley 1
Before any votes are cast, presidential candidates compete for the support of influential members of their party, especially elected officials like U.S. representatives, senators and governors. During the period known as the invisible primary, these party elites seek to coalesce around the candidates they find most acceptable as their partys nominee. Over the past few decades, when these elites have reached a consensus on the best candidate, rank-and-file voters have usually followed.