2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: New CNN Iowa Poll: Bernie 51, Hillary 43, Martin 4 [View all]pnwmom
(108,955 posts)The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from January 7 to 10, 2016 with a statewide random sample of 413 New Hampshire voters drawn from a list of registered Democrats and independent voters who participated in a primary election in the past two election cycles or voted in both the 2012 and 2014 general elections, and indicate they will vote in the Democratic presidential primary in February 2016. This was supplemented by a sample of new voters who say they are likely to register and vote in the Democratic primary. This includes 290 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 123 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone, in English. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for age and gender based on state registration list information on the pool of voters who participate in primary elections. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Aristotle (voter list and non-voter sample). For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.