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Mon Jan 25, 2016, 04:49 PM

First Read-Clinton's geographical advantage in Iowa [View all]

Caucuses are strange animals. I ran my precinct caucus in 2008. The key element in a caucus is not the number of votes but the number of delegates awarded. Here the fact that Sanders support is concentrated in three college towns will hurt him as to delegate allocation http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read-get-ready-long-fight-democratic-nod-n503696

Staying with the Clinton-vs.-Sanders contest, MSNBC's Alex Seitz-Wald makes a very smart point: Geography likely gives Clinton a big advantage in Iowa. Why? "Iowa is a caucus not a primary. That means a supporter in one place is not necessary as valuable as a supporter in another place... Take the university towns: More than a quarter 27 percent of Sanders supporters come from just three counties of Iowa's 99, according to the Register poll, each home to one of the state's largest universities. But those three counties award only 12 percent of the total 1401 delegates at stake statewide. 'He's setting the world on fire on the college campuses,' [Iowa Dem strategist Jeff] Link explained. 'That's great if you're in a primary, but it's not as much if you're in a caucus.'" If Clinton wins Iowa, this will DEFINITELY be one of the reasons why. But don't discount Sanders or his operation at all.

While Sanders may do well in the counties with large student populations, those counties have fewer delegates.

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