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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Mon Jan 25, 2016, 03:57 PM

4. Sanders would need to win 70 percent of Iowa's delegates...to even "be on track" to stay competitive

According to one of the experts for the Cook Report, Sanders needs to win big in Iowa to have a chance http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/sanders-needs-more-than-a-win-in-iowa-to-beat-clinton

As David Wasserman wrote in the Cook Political Report last week, "98 percent of pledged Democratic delegates will come from states with lower shares of liberal whites than Iowa and New Hampshire." That is a big problem for Sanders who has yet to prove he can expand his base....

Yet, even then, delegate allocation is proportional, which means that Sanders would have to begin winning by major margins to make the race a serious contest.

Wasserman estimates that according to his models, Sanders would "need to win 70 percent of Iowa's delegates and 63 percent of New Hampshire's delegates" to even "be on track" to stay competitive with Clinton in later states where demographically speaking, Clinton has shown she has more support. And in a states like Florida and South Carolina, Clinton leads in recent polls by 36 points and 19 points, respectively.

"It is not merely the delegate process that favors Hillary, it is the voters. She has earned the loyalty and support of communities of color, women, the LGBTQ community, environmentalists, and other vital parts of the Democratic coalition," says Democratic strategist Paul Begala, a Clinton supporter. "Bernie's coalition - so far - is more narrow. It is impressive in its energy and its passion, but it is, I think, more narrow."

I have not seen any projections or polls that show that Sanders being close to these numbers.
This is the DU member formerly known as Gothmog.

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Gothmog Jan 2016 OP
Motown_Johnny Jan 2016 #1
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Dawson Leery Jan 2016 #2
KingFlorez Jan 2016 #3
LineReply Sanders would need to win 70 percent of Iowa's delegates...to even "be on track" to stay competitive
Gothmog Jan 2016 #4
Motown_Johnny Jan 2016 #7
Gothmog Jan 2016 #10
Motown_Johnny Jan 2016 #11
Hortensis Jan 2016 #12
Hortensis Jan 2016 #8
Gothmog Jan 2016 #13
Iliyah Jan 2016 #9
wildeyed Jan 2016 #14
StevieM Jan 2016 #15
Gothmog Jan 2016 #16
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