2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Hot Off The Press Marist Iowa and South Carolina Polls-IA HRC 48% - SBS 45%/ SC HRC-64%-SBS 27% [View all]Jarqui
(10,123 posts)Does one side sleep better if they're 1 point a head of the other in a statistical tie? No way because of the margin of error. They might look to be up one and in fact are down three with a margin of error of +/- 4.
Nearly all of the polls I've seen have demographics that favor Clinton - in effect pad her numbers at the expense of Bernie. So the poll of polls today showing Clinton as +.2 is BS. Sanders is ahead probably about 2 pts when you consider the demographics.
And it also comes down to who comes out to vote. If they have a bad snowfall, I think it's harder on the seniors for example (not good news for Clinton).
This is a tight contest. Could go either way. One party being a smidgen ahead of the other in the polls isn't going to govern their actions. Doing something that can distance themselves from the other party is something they would consider.