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2016 Postmortem

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)

13. Agreed

Reply to kcjohn1 (Reply #9)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 07:57 PM

Jan 2016

We will see not only the Iowa result, but a pretty good indication of whether Sanders' claims of energizing voters is accurate. If he loses, and the young, independent, first time caucus goers numbers fail him, then the whole argument about a movement starts to crumble. Iowa tells us more than just who won Iowa.

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Highlight:

Gold standard poll in Iowa: Clinton 45% Bernie 42% [View all] hill2016 Jan 2016 OP

Within the MOE. It all comes down to turnout. Looking good for Clinton though! JonLeibowitz Jan 2016 #1

Sounds close. We'll have to see saltpoint Jan 2016 #2

A statistical tie TSIAS Jan 2016 #3

Looking like she's going to win LittleBlue Jan 2016 #4

Have to get out the vote in the rural areas!!! JudyM Jan 2016 #20

The numbers for first time Caucus goers is particularly bad for Sanders alcibiades_mystery Jan 2016 #5

3 point difference is good? RiverLover Jan 2016 #6

We'd be celebrating if we won the poll. Now it is all about turnout. JonLeibowitz Jan 2016 #7

Probably so, but only because Bernie is the underdog. 3 points seems close to me. RiverLover Jan 2016 #18

I'll say this: shows Clinton has pretty big electability problems if Sanders can nearly edge her out JonLeibowitz Jan 2016 #21

not considering the demography of Iowa redstateblues Jan 2016 #26

Actually pretty bad for Clinton basselope Jan 2016 #8

They are likely to split comradebillyboy Jan 2016 #22

History suggests otherwise. basselope Jan 2016 #25

Interesting about kcjohn1 Jan 2016 #9

Agreed alcibiades_mystery Jan 2016 #13

But where did Hillary start? How far ahead??n/t tokenlib Jan 2016 #10

Why does it add up to 90 and not 100? (eom) Deny and Shred Jan 2016 #11

Undecided voters TSIAS Jan 2016 #14

Got it. Thanks. Deny and Shred Jan 2016 #23

Woo-hoo! workinclasszero Jan 2016 #12

That is a dead heat. retrowire Jan 2016 #15

looks about even to me JI7 Jan 2016 #16

Any idea which way O'Malley's supporters break if they don't get to 15%? Motown_Johnny Jan 2016 #17

How much of the polling took place before the most recent Clinton email revelations? Karmadillo Jan 2016 #19

Good thought. It was 26-29th, pre-news. And how much news coverage is that getting in Iowa? JudyM Jan 2016 #24

42% Like honesty, integrity & a more perfect union NowSam Jan 2016 #27

K&R. YEEESSSS! lunamagica Jan 2016 #28