2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Hillary's Winning the 13-State-Bible-Belt. Sanders is Still Winning the 37-State-Not-The-Bible-Belt! [View all]Peace Patriot
(24,010 posts)And the numbers tell us that it's going to be a tight race in the remaining states, with Sanders having the chance to make up the difference that Clinton gained first of all in the front-loaded southern states. Also, that she hasn't done that well outside of the southern states, which is where the primary is going now. (Near ties in Illinois, Iowa and Massachusetts do not bode well for her, though her win in Ohio does--so it's something of a draw at this point. It is notable too--something to consider--that without the southern states (which she won't have in November) she is still struggling, which doesn't bode well for November.)
We all realize that Sanders is a long shot--he always has been--but it's NOT OVER. It's not over until the majority of people in this country get to vote, and they happen to live in much more Sanders-friendly states.
One reason for dropping off the southern states, in prognosis discussions, is that neither Clinton nor Sanders will win them in the GE. Both MUST do well in the non-southern states to win the GE. And the fact that Sanders still has a chance to win the nomination, at this point, does not say much for Clinton's popularity in the portion of the country she must have in the fall. When you add in her extremely negative numbers on general population approval, and Sanders' opposite numbers (very highly approved of) plus Sanders' ability to draw in Independent voters, young voters, new voters and disgruntled voters, she is actually in some trouble--whereas Sanders as the Dem nominee has more of a chance to blow Trump (or whoever) away in the GE, due to his ability to engender enthusiasm and excitement for a new New Deal.
Now that IS "spin." I want this to be considered--Clinton's chances in the GE vs Sander's. There aren't a lot of numbers on this yet, but the ones we do have do not look good for Clinton. Sanders has much higher favorability ratings and he beats Trump by double the margin that Clinton does. Though Sanders is the underdog now (as to total earned delegates), electability in the GE may be a factor in the coming states. I think it's already been a factor in Clinton's favor in the states that have voted; but I think that could switch round in the states ahead, as Clinton's "baggage" gets more attention (for instance, having Kissinger as an advisor will push very bad buttons for her in blue states; the recent murders in Honduras and her support for the fascist coup there will also be "baggage" for her--and there is quite a lot more). When blue state voters assess this "baggage" they will rightfully worry about the GE.
"Spin" again, but not without substance. Clinton supporters should be thinking about these things.